Friday, July 22, 2011

Wait, but he said....

OK, so here is Larry Brooks's report on the Rangers' current cap situation. He says we have $10,201,500 left to sign Callahan, Eminger, etc. Wait, but, I said we have $6,966,666 left. How can this be?!?

Here's how:

1. Bonus overage from last season. On this point, I'm just wrong, I think. Here's the deal. Certain players are eligible to have performance bonuses written into their contracts. These are paid out only if they meet certain requirements during the season (like scoring 20 goals or playing 50 games or something). Because it is possible that the team will not end up paying them out, it is hard to figure out how to calculate their cap hit. So, here's what they do: a team is allowed to go above the salary cap, in total performance bonuses, by up to 7.5% of that season's cap. Then, if the team ends up actually paying out those bonuses enough to take them over the cap itself, the amount by which they go over is deducted from their following season's cap. So it all evens out.

Now, according to Brooks (and according to CapGeek, which cites Brooks as its source), the Rangers went over last season's cap by $527,000. I have done no math of my own to confirm this, and I'm not sure I have enough information to do so. Still, it's a reasonable figure, and it's not super-likely that Brooks would be wrong about it, so I'm gonna start using it. That brings my total figure down to $6,439,666.

2. Erik Christensen definitely counts against the summer cap, which I showed here is probably no longer as much of a concern as our season cap. But Brooks takes him out of the main cap calculation, as he's not a definite to make the team. I can't complain about that move. If you take Christensen's $925,000 salary out of Brooks's figure, it drops to $9,276,500.

3. I said I was making a bold assumption and including four two-way contracts in my figure: Stepan, McDonagh, Zuccarello, and Del Zotto. Brooks makes the same assumption about Step and McD, but not Zucc or DZ. To get up to his figure, I'll concede Zucc and DZ for now. However, notice that, even after Eminger and Callahan, the number will only include 18 skaters (18 play a night; our roster would be full at 21). Anyway, releasing Zuccarello's $1.75 million and Del Zotto's $1.0875 million brings my number up to $9,277,166.

So, with all those changes, why is my cap figure $666 higher than his? Rounding. He uses $6.667 million as his Richards figure and $3.717 million as Drury's. The actual numbers are $6,666,667 and $3,716,667, respectively. There's your remaining difference.

So even if we make his roster concessions, we're looking at $10,202,166 to sign Callahan and Eminger, but then only have 17 skaters. If we throw in Del Zotto, Zuccarello, and Christensen, we've got 20 skaters, and we've got $6,439,666 left for Cally and Eminger. So, we're okay, but we're a little tight. Which is why at the end of his piece, Brooks brings up the idea of buying out Wojtek Wolski's contract.

First of all, yes, they can do this. The Standard Player Contract states that there are two windows in which a team can buy out a player: 1) the period between June 15 (or the end of the Finals, whichever comes later) and June 30; and 2) if the team has any kind of salary arbitration pending, for the 48 hours following the resolution of their final arbitration. It's so teams can see what's up with their arbitrations before planning buyouts. So, the Rangers will have a small window in which to buy out Wolski's contract, beginning either when Callahan signs a contract or, if his arbitration happens, when it is resolved, and ending 48 hours later.

What would it mean? Well, Wolski is making $3.8 million under the cap this season, the final one of his contract. Because he is 25 (under 26, specifically), the buyout value of his contract will be 1/3 of the total remaining salary on it, which is $4 million. So the buyout value will be $1,333,333. That's spread over twice as many seasons as remain, for $666,667 per year. An additional calculation involves this year's salary vs cap hit. Don't worry about it, just trust me. His buyout cap hit would be $466,667 this season and $666,667 next season, as opposed to $3.8 million this season and nothing next season.

That might be a buyout worth doing. It saves us $3,333,333 on this season's cap and only costs us $666,667 next season. Then he can feel free to go find some team who will give him a more reasonable, $1.5 million deal. Hell, if he turned back around and signed with us for that, it would still save almost $2 million. Bear in mind that if this happens, next season's total buyout hit for Drury and Wolski (which will be the only other season they affect) will be $2,333,334 (Drury will definitely count for $1,666,667). I'm for it!

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