Wednesday, November 30, 2011

More straightforward than "games-in-hand"?

So, we've looked at the standings from a goal differential standpoint, and it's pretty satisfying. The defending Cup champs, the Boston Brewers, lead the league by a mile with a differential of +28. The Rangers are ranked third in the conference at +14, 3 behind Pittsburgh and 2 in front of Philly (Goddamn Atlantic Division).

But after listening to the Pens post-game radio broadcast last night (to paraphrase: "The Rangers may have flexed their muscles here tonight, but the Penguins are still at the top of the league in the standings"), I got to thinking if maybe there's a simpler way to explain games-in-hand. Of course, the Penguins have 32 points, the most in the league, but they've played 4 more games than the Rangers. Generally, in hockey, we talk about these "games-in-hand" - the Rangers have 4 games in hand over the Penguins. The Rangers could gain up to 8 points in those games, so at worst they're 3 points behind and at best they're 5 points ahead?

Especially with the new ridiculous "games are worth either 2 or 3 points, depending on how long they are" standings system, this is not the easiest way to compare among more than two teams. So here's what I've been calculating in my head: "potential points lost." Rather than calculating total points and adding wins up as if every team wins every game in hand (which they can't all do, of course), I'm ignoring all the other numbers and comparing solely based on "potential points lost." If you lost a game in regulation, you lost 2 potential points. If you lost it in OT or a shootout, you lost 1 potential point (since you could have gained up to 2 points in that game).

Obviously, the lower, the better. Theoretically, there are 164 potential points for one team in a season, and each game you lose, you lose some potential points for the season. Sure, the more games you've played, the more potential points you could have already lost, but it's arguably more telling than "total points gained," which is probably more dependent on total number of games played.

Maybe this is no less affected by games played than total points, but it's a slightly interesting number to look at. Anyway, the Rangers lead the league in "potential points lost," with only 13 on the season (5 losses and 3 OT losses). The closest runners-up are Boston, Detroit, and San Jose, who have each lost 15 potential points this season. Next would be Philly, Minnesota, and Phoenix, who have each lost 17 potential points. At the bottom of the league, the Blue Jackets have lost 33 potential points already this season, the Hurricanes have lost 32, and the Ducks have lost 30.

Is this interesting at all?

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