Monday, April 11, 2011

You had to see this coming

The number after the team name in parentheses is goal differential for the season.

The Actual Playoff Picture
1. Washington (+27) - 107
2. Philadelphia (+36) - 106
3. Boston (+51) - 103
4. Pittsburgh (+39) - 106
5. Tampa Bay (+7) - 103
6. Montréal (+7) - 96
7. Buffalo (+16) - 96
8. New York Rangers (+35) - 93

1. Vancouver (+77) - 117
2. San Jose (+35) - 105
3. Detroit (+20) - 104
4. Anaheim (+4) - 99
5. Nashville (+25) - 99
6. Phoenix (+5) - 99
7. Los Angeles (+21) - 98
8. Chicago (+33) - 97

The Old-School-Style Playoff Picture
1. Philadelphia (+36) - 98
2. Washington (+27) - 97
3. Boston (+51) - 96
4. Tampa Bay (+7) - 92
5. Pittsburgh (+39) - 91
6. Montréal (+7) - 88
7. New York Rangers (+35) - 82
8. Buffalo (+16) - 82

1. Vancouver (+77) - 109
2. San Jose (+35) - 96
3. Detroit (+20) - 94
4. Anaheim (+4) - 92
5. Chicago (+33) - 87
6. Phoenix (+5) - 87
7. Nashville (+25) - 86
8. Dallas (-6) - 86

The Soccer-Style Playoff Picture
1. Philadelphia (+36) - 147
2. Boston (+51) - 146
3. Washington (+27) - 141
4. Pittsburgh (+39) - 140
5. Tampa Bay (+7) - 135
6. Montréal (+7) - 132
7. New York Rangers (+35) - 125
8. Buffalo (+16) - 124

1. Vancouver (+77) - 163
2. San Jose (+35) - 143
3. Detroit (+20) - 138
4. Nashville (+25) - 135
5. Phoenix (+5) - 135
6. Anaheim (+4) - 133
7. Los Angeles (+21) - 133
8. Chicago (+33) - 131

Some initial scattered thoughts:
---No matter what you do, Vancouver is better than you.
---Weird that the old-school system actually admits a team with a negative goal differential, in Dallas replacing the Kings.
---Both new systems make ties in points in the standings less common (although that seems counter-intuitive in the old-school system).
---Without the artificial "division-winners take the top three spots" rule, in both the old-school-style and soccer-style systems, the three division-winners ended up in the top three spots, in both conferences. In the current system, the rule was needed to place Boston ahead of Pittsburgh.
---The West really is that much better than the East.
---Other than that one substitution (Dallas for LA), both systems give us the same playoff teams as the current system this season.
---I'm thinking that the current system doesn't necessarily give you the wrong playoff teams and matchups, it just adds more randomness into the system, so you might get the wrong teams and matchups. The current system brings teams that are close in the standings even closer than they should be. It looks like this season, hockey got lucky. What I'm saying is that the teams that made it by a hair this season would have made it by a few more hairs using these other systems.

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