Here, let me explain

OK, before we get into it, how about a big old FUCK YEAH RANGERS after last night's win. Fuck. Yeah. Rangers.

So, I wasn't gonna post this since it changes every damn day, but then I got some questions about it, so here's the total situation as it stands right now. Our final two games are Thursday night against Atlanta and Saturday afternoon against the Devils.

6. Montréal - 91 pts, 3 GR
7. NEW YORK RANGERS - 91 pts, 2 GR
8. Buffalo - 90 pts, 3 GR
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9. Carolina - 87 pts, 3 GR

(Yes, Toronto could still technically make the playoffs, if they win out and Buffalo loses out, but they can't pass us, so I don't care. We're ending up somewhere between 6th and 9th.)

So, here is the situation, by team, of how we end up ahead of or behind them in the standings. What we absolutely must do to make the playoffs, of course, is finish ahead of at least one of these three teams. If we finish ahead of two, we end up in 7th, and if we finish ahead of all three, we end up in 6th. Naturally.

The Canadiens: Tied in points with us, with a game-in-hand. To beat them, we absolutely must be ahead of them in points, which means we must gain more points in our final two games than they do in their final three. Those games are tonight against the Blackhawks, Thursday night against the Senators, and Saturday night against the Maple Leafs. So, if they gain at least 4 points in those three games, we can't pass them. If they gain 3, we have to win out; if they gain 2, we have to gain 3; and so on. If we lose out, obviously, they stay ahead of us.

The Sabres: A point behind us, with a game-in-hand. To stay ahead of them, we almost certainly must be ahead of them in points, which means we must gain at least as many points in our final two games as they do in their final three. Their final three games are tonight against the Lightning, Friday night against the Flyers, and Saturday night against the Blue Jackets. So, if they gain 4 points in those three games, we'd have to win out; if they gain 3 points in those three games, we'd have to gain 3 points in our two games; and so on. If we lose out, they'd have to lose out as well. However, there is one exception in which we have the tiebreaker: if the Sabres gain 5 points in their next 3 games, and we win out, we end tied in points, which usually means the Sabres win the tiebreaker. However, in that particular scenario, if both of our wins were in regulation or overtime, and both of Buffalo's wins were in the shootout, then we win the tiebreaker over them. Unlikely, but still plausible. Failing that scenario, we have to end ahead of them in points.

The Hurricanes: This is the only team over whom we actually control our own destiny. Four points behind us with a game-in-hand, this is the team about whom we can say that if we win out, we will definitely finish ahead of them. In fact, if we gain 3 points in our final two games, they can't possibly catch us. Down from there, they can. If we only gain 2 points in our final two games, by winning a game in regulation or overtime, we stay ahead of them unless they win out the season and at least two of their wins are in regulation or overtime. If we gain 2 points in our final two games without a win in regulation or overtime (a shootout win and a loss, or two overtime losses), we stay ahead of them unless they win out the season and at least one of those three wins is in regulation or OT.

If we gain only one point in our final two games of the season, Carolina beats us if they win out. They also beat us if they gain 5 of a possible 6 points in their final three games, provided that at least one of their 2 wins was in regulation or OT. Even if we lose out our final two games, Carolina needs to get 5 of a possible 6 points to beat us for sure. If they get 4 of 6, they beat us provided that those 4 points included at least one regulation or overtime win. If all 4 points are from shootouts and overtime losses, we get the playoff spot anyway. The Hurricanes' final three games are tomorrow night against the Red Wings, Friday night against the Thrashers, and Saturday night against the Lightning.

So, there's 100% of the standings situation for us, in way more detail than you wanted. Let's Go Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, Red Wings, Senators, Flyers, Lightning, and Maple Leafs. And Let's Go Thrashers on Friday night, but not on Thursday night. And, of course, Let's Go Rangers.