The original title of this post read "(and an old flame)" but then I remembered that the Flames were an actual hockey team, so you would probably think I meant them, and not that I was trying to colorfully refer to the Devils.
Anyway, Brendan Shanahan has received an invitation to at least 82 more Bump-a-Marty Parties, if he can make the lineup. He re-signed with New Jersey. Blah blah blah old man jokes. I still like and respect him, despite his latest choice of uniform. And I only wanted him back insofar as he'd play 4th line left wing. I hope he loses every game this season, but it's nothing personal.
Moving on: let's have a little chat about Brandon Dubinsky. Like you, I am starting to get worried about how he's all not-on-our-team-yet and such. I learned from Michael Obernauer today that Dubinsky rejected his qualifying offer ($638,000) from us. Before you panic, in no way does this mean that he is not a Ranger. He is, in fact, still a restricted free agent for the Rangers. Today, let's take a dive into exactly what it does mean.
First of all, I referred to Dubi rejecting our "qualifying offer," so let's make sure we're on the same page about that. When we spoke a while ago about free agency, we covered the differences between restricted and unrestricted free agency. A restricted free agent, I told you, is not free to sign with any team he chooses unless he is passed on by his current team. We saw this happen most recently with Nikolai Zherdev. Now, obviously, Zherdev filed for arbitration, which is a process you understand pretty well now. But not all RFAs qualify for arbitration, and many that do don't file for it. There must be some kind of regulation surrounding the contract offers to these players. After all, you can't have every NHL team offering the league minimum contract to every one of their RFAs and forcing them to accept.
That's why we have the term "qualifying offers." A qualifying offer is the minimum offer an NHL team is required to make an RFA. The team can exceed this offer (as in, again, Zherdev's case, when we offered him $3.25 million), but cannot go below it. The amount of the qualifying offer is based on the player's previous salary, in a sliding scale. If you care about the details:
-If the player made between the NHL minimum $500,000 and $660,000 last season, the qualifying offer must be 110% of that last season's salary.
-If the player made between from $660,000 to $1 million last season, the qualifying offer must be 105% of that last season's salary.
-If the player made over $1 million season, the qualifying offer must be that last season's salary.
So a qualifying offer is an offer made to an RFA that "qualifies" as a valid offer, using the above criteria. This is what we mean when we say "we qualified Zherdev at $3.25 million." A team can choose not to extend a offer to a RFA, in which case that player becomes unrestricted (can sign any contract with anyone). Here's the part I really didn't get into, though: even if a team qualifies an RFA, that player can still reject the offer. If he does so, his free agency status does not change: he is still an RFA for that team, he just hasn't accepted the offer. This is what Dubinsky has done.
Yes, you, in the back?
"Wait, then what happens next? He's still restricted, but he doesn't want his team's offer. Isn't this a stalemate?"
Excellent question. Glad to see you're paying attention. 5 points to Ravenclaw. Dubinsky has rejected the Rangers' offer of $638,000 (the necessary 110% of last year's $580,000), and so he remains an RFA for the Rangers. Now what? Sure, the Rangers could offer him more, but what's their incentive, if his hands are tied anyway?
Enter the "offer sheet." Yes, the quotes mean it will be on the vocab quiz. An offer sheet is an offer made to an RFA by a team that is not his. Yes, this can happen. Here's the deal: if the Rangers offer to qualify Dubinsky, and he doesn't accept, another team can offer him a contract. Because he's restricted to the Rangers, he can't just accept the contract, but he can sign that he's interested. If he does so, the Rangers then have the chance to offer Dubinsky an identical contract themselves. They can no longer negotiate a new contract, they either have to offer him exactly the terms of the offer sheet or not. If they do, he's obligated to take it over the other team's. If they don't, Dubinsky must sign the other team's contract.
At that point, there are two more minor caveats:
1. The new team can't trade Dubinsky for at least a year.
2. The Rangers are compensated for the signing by draft picks from Dubinsky's new team (some quantity calculated by some formula based on Dubinsky's new salary, ranging from no compensation if Dubinsky makes $994,434 or less to 4 first-round picks if he makes $7,533,585 or more).
So, what's the practical upshot here? Offer sheets are fairly rare: apparently only 32 have been presented since 1986 (presumably when the practice came about) of which one was dropped and another invalidated, and only 5 have been presented since February of 1998 (of which only 1 wasn't matched by the original team). Generally speaking, a player is probably trying to get a little more money out of his deal, and Dubinsky is likely no exception.
If the Rangers think Dubinksy might reasonably receive an offer sheet, they will probably up his qualifying offer fairly soon. If not, they will either offer him a little bit more as an indicator of confidence or just wait and see. Regardless, it seems unlikely that he will receive a multi-million dollar offer sheet from anyone, and it seems unlikely that the Rangers won't match an offer that comes in a few hundred thousand dollars higher than their qualifier. So, essentially, I imagine Dubinsky will still end up a Ranger. He and his employer are just gonna go through some interesting contract negotiation hoops first.
And yes, I'd like to see this come to an end as soon as possible, too. I'm just saying Dubinsky in Blue is still the likeliest outcome here.
Let's leave you with some phun phacts about offer sheets!
--No Rangers RFA has ever received an offer sheet from another team in offer sheet history.
--The Rangers have only ever presented 4 offer sheets in offer sheet history.
--Most recently, the Rangers offered Colorado Avalancher Joe Sakic $21 million for 3 years. The Avs matched it.
--Only once in offer sheet history have the Rangers presented an offer sheet that was not matched by the RFA's original team. On September 3, 1991, the New York Rangers gave the Edmonton Oilers Troy Mallette in exchange for the right to sign a 5 year, $2.44 million contract...with Adam Graves.
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