Oh, wait, that's me. I'm back from traveling! And I'm getting on another plane to leave again tonight!
Since I left, we lost some games, and we won some games. I didn't see the Bruins game on Saturday, but it seems like I missed very little. I saw the loss to the 'Canes and the win over the Habs. We can't feel too terrible about these. The Bruins are the best team in the East, and the 'Canes have cold forgotten how to lose games. Other teams didn't do us favors, then they did. We can't worry about that, because we can only win our games. Also, the Penguins are SUCH DICKS that they didn't even beat Florida for us. SUCH DICKS.
We've been playing...decent hockey. I feel like last night's victory had a lot to do with a very jumpy Carey Price. We're crashing the net...more...but not enough. We definitely looked good in the second and third periods, but not exceptional, and we looked awful in the first. The point is that I'm very happy with the points, and we didn't play bad hockey, but if Carey Price were, say, Marty Biron, we might have lost this game 2-1. Just sayin'.
Sean Avery is playing fantastic hockey, despite the fact that his probationary period still doesn't seem to be over. Naslund seems to have stepped up his game, at least for this last one. Antropov continues to be huge. Oh! And Rozsival's back! And...he looks exactly as confused as he did when he left.
At the end of this last hiatus I seem to have taken, here's where our (now significantly diminished) standings update...stands...:
7. Montréal, 92 pts, 2 GR
8. NEW YORK RANGERS, 91 pts, 2 GR
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9. Florida, 89 pts, 2 GR
10. Buffalo, 85 pts, 3 GR
Between now and this weekend's finale, the Sabres have to play both the 'Canes and the Bruins. Let's assume that they're not beating both (and the Leafs tonight). That puts us somewhere between 7th and 9th. 9th is out. 8th plays the Bruins round 1. 7th plays the Devils or Caps, most likely the Caps (unless the Caps lose to both the Lightning and the Panthers AND the Devils beat both the Senators and the 'Canes - unlikely).
So, mathy times. If we win one of our two, we are in the playoffs. That's simple. If we win one more, we have more wins than the Panthers can get, and we have as many points as they can get. So we're in with one win. If we don't get that win, Florida or Buffalo can catch us by winning out (really, Florida can catch us with a win/OTL combo too).
As for catching 7th (which, as previously described, is hell of desirable - see also: Boston is a way better team than Washington), we'd need help. Montréal can clinch 7th by winning out the season. If they lose 1, we can clinch it by winning out, if they lose both, we can clinch it by winning 1, etc. This is obvious. In case of 3-point games, here are the tiebreakers:
We have 2 more wins than the Panthers. So if we end up tied, we will likely still have 1 more win than they do, which means we win the tiebreaker. If, however, we end up tied with them by losing both our games in overtime while they win both, we'll be tied in wins, and the tiebreaker will go to the season series, which the Panthers have won.
If we somehow end up tied with Buffalo (they win out, we lose out), we will also end up tied with them in wins. The tiebreaker will go to the season series, which the Sabres have won (this is why they are still in contention).
We are tied with the Canadiens in wins. So, if we end up tied with them in points because they lost in OT a game that we won, we will win the tiebreaker by having the extra win. However, if we end up tied because we lost in OT a game that they lost in regulation, we stay tied in wins, and the tiebreaker will go to the season series, which, as you have no doubt guessed if you're still reading this and good at pattern recognition, the Canadiens have won.
So, what are the chances of these teams doing these various things? Let's look forward. As well you know, our season comes down to a home-and-home against the Flyers, Thursday night at 7 at the Garden, and Sunday night at 5 in Philly. We've already covered the Sabres. Meanwhile, what will the Panthers and Canadiens be doing? Florida is in Atlanta tomorrow night at 7, then home against the Caps Saturday night at 7. Montréal is in Boston tomorrow night at 7, then home against the Pens Saturday night at 7.
This is not so bad for us. It lets us just concentrate on beating the Flyers. If we can beat them in both games, we make the playoffs and have a good chance at 7th. If we can beat them in one game, we make the playoffs and have a mediocre chance at 7th. If we can't win at all, we have a poor chance at the playoffs and no chance at 7th. I know I've described "season-defining moments" before, but....yeah.
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