Thursday, October 9, 2014

In which Yom Kippur prevents me from proving how clever I am

So, the Rangers' last 2 preseason games were on Kol Nidre and the night at the end of Yom Kippur. So I recorded them, and I avoided news, as I watched them Sunday into Monday, I formed opinions and made notes about who I thought should get cut, who I thought was going to get cut, etc. Then I went to start posting about it and realized it had all already happened, because I was 2 days behind reality.

This is disappointing because I was going to post a whole bunch of predictions, and then they basically all came true, and I was going to look so smart you guys. Here's how smart I was going to look.

Obviously, I and everyone else on the planet were going to be right about the goalies, who were always going to be Lundqvist and Talbot, and are.

On defense, I never expected Conor Allen to be cut as early as he was (prior to these two games), but I definitely would have said that McIlrath, Kampfer, and Kostka (along with the more obvious Bodie, Hughes, and Zamorsky) were all going to be cut, and since it wasn't going to be Allen, I would have said that Hunwick was going to be the 7th D-man. Kostka, like his numbersake before him, looked too inconsistent - higher highs and lower lows - and what you want from a 7th defenseman (and, I'd argue, the previous 6) is consistency. Anyway, Hunwick is the 7th D; hooray.

Up front, skipping the obvious roster locks (Brassard, Hagelin, Kreider, Moore, Nash, St. Louis, Stempniak, Stepan, Zuccarello) left 12 forwards at camp going into these two games: Duclair, Fast, Glass, Haggerty, Hayes, Hrivik, Lindberg, Lombardi, Malone, Miller, Mueller, and Potulny. With Stepan starting the season on Long-Term Injured Reserve, and the team likely to carry two extra forwards, that meant half of those 12 were going to make the team. I was going to write about how everyone's new favorite Duke, Anthony Duclair, was of course going to make the team after his phenomenal preseason, and how Jesper Fast was more quietly impressive as well. I was going to say that Malone was impressive in his limited non-injured time, and that Glass was making too much money to not be put on the roster. I was going to complain about that last thing quite a lot. With our woes down the middle, we were obviously going to count on a big season from JT "Not TJ" Miller, leaving 1 spot for the remaining 7 forwards. I was going to say that the two players most likely to fill that spot were the centers Kevin Hayes and Chris Mueller. I was going to be right about all of those things.

Then I was going to be a little wrong again, claiming that I believed that Mueller deserved that spot over Hayes. I liked Mueller's reliable play in camp, but Vigneault's team is choosing to go with the potential of youth instead. When Hayes was deemed healthy enough to not put onto Injured Reserve, the Rangers sent Mueller down on waivers. So it goes.

So that was going to finalize the Rangers' roster at 24 (with Stepan on LTIR to hit the maximum of 23):
Forwards: Brassard, Duclair, Fast, Glass, Hagelin, Hayes, Kreider, Malone, Miller, Moore, Nash, St. Louis, Stempniak, Stepan, Zuccarello
Defensemen: Boyle, Girardi, Hunwick, Klein, McDonagh, Moore, Staal
Goalies: Lundqvist, Talbot

Then I was going to talk about the lineup for opening night. I was going to be very, very wrong about it. But in fairness to me, that's because it's kind of a stupid lineup.

The defensive pairs are what you'd expect (McDonagh/Girardi; Staal/Boyle; Moore/Klein). If it were me, McD would play with Boyle, and Girardi would play with Staal. That would give Boyle the opportunity to be big and create offensive opportunity while our best roving defenseman (and new captain) covers for him, and it would reunite another extremely effective shutdown pair in Girardi and Staal. If your number two pair is Girardi and Staal, you're doing something right. But we knew that wasn't going to happen, because Vigneault likes his second pair to be "offensively minded," while his best two defensemen (no doubt G and McD) play in the first pair.

(Also if it were me, Moore's spot would probably be heavily contested by Hunwick (and Conor Allen)).

It's up front where shit gets weird. Here's the lineup we'll see tonight in St. Louis:

Kreider - St. Louis - Nash
Hagelin - Brassard - Zuccarello
Duclair - Miller - Stempniak
Glass - Moore - Fast

This is kinda really dumb, I think? Let's assume that Kevin Hayes (and, by extension, Chris Mueller) is really not ready to play. Let's assume that therefore, with Stepan out, you've decided you have to move St. Louis to center.

Actually, can we pause for a second and admire how far into this post I got before making a "St. Louis in St. Louis" joke? Thanks.

So, let's assume you've decided that that's the best way to move forward with this roster. That's fine, I don't hate that argument. It moves a great right wing to a position where he's weaker, but it gives a spot to a guy like Jesper Fast over Kevin Hayes, so I get it. But given that, here are my three issues.

1) Brassard and Zuccarello are a good pair in search of a left wing. Preferably a big, puck-controlling left wing, like they had last season, who can use his size to go in deep and protect the puck while Brassard does clever things with it and Zuccarello skates circles around everyone. Like, for example, Chris Kreider, whom they've had on their wing in multiple preseason games in which they were effective. Meanwhile, St. Louis, who has a big, strong, puck carrier on his right in Nash, could use someone very, very fast on his left. Rumor is that Brassard asked to be playing with Hags, which I guess holds some weight? But I'd have to be convinced to keep it this way for too long, and I have to assume that, by the time Stepan is back, if this line isn't clicking, Vigneault will switch it around.

2) I don't want this space to become "shit on Tanner Glass" central, but how does he make the lineup while Ryan Malone sits on the bench? I came into camp pretty discouraged about both of them, but Malone, in his injury-limited camp time, looked big and fast and smart and impressive. Glass was invisible except when punching or being punched. I can't justify why Glass plays with Malone on the bench unless a) his salary justifies his lineup spot b) Vigneault wants him around because of past experience in Vancouver c) the game we are playing is some weird derivative of hockey where you win by punching and/or being punched. This team had some heavy competition for forwards making the roster out of camp at all; on a team with that kind of talent up front, it's inexcusable to waste one of your only 12 lineup spots.

3) Last season, the 4th line was a real asset to the team, which is what people say when a 4th line is effective at all and can be trusted to possess the puck like a normal line. That line was, generally speaking, Dominic Moore, Brian Boyle, and whoever. I'm a pretty big fan of building a 4th line like that again, and Moore is the right center for it again. Putting aside that I'm interpreting "Tanner Glass" to mean "Ryan Malone," we've got 3 more wings left in the lineup: Duclair, Stempniak, and Fast. We've got 3 more spots: two on a 3rd line centered by JT Miller, and one on that "effective at having the puck" line centered by Dominic Moore. Do you see where I'm going with this? Doesn't it seem like a no-brainer to put Duclair and Fast, who worked together very well in the preseason, around Miller, and put Stempniak with Moore where he can be a part of that reliable 4th line?


I'm a little concerned that Vigneault's lineup suffers a bit from the John Tortorella school of promotion: the top 3 forwards make the top line, and so on down the list. All of which is to say, here is what my opening night lineup would look like:

Hagelin - St. Louis - Nash
Kreider - Brassard - Zuccarello
Duclair - Miller - Fast
Malone - Moore - Stempniak

Doesn't that sound better? Am I crazy? What would your opening night lineup look like?

PS HOCKEY IS BACK, O FRABJOUS DAY

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