Some playoff facts

So, following a discussion on Twitter (What? Don't you judge me.) yesterday, I started to look at some playoff stuff. Not "if the season ended today..." - those articles are bullshit; we all know how the standings work, and we can just go look at them to find out. If the season ended today, for example, we'd rematch the Caps, the Pens would play the Flyers, and Boston would get to prove just how bullshit Ottawa is. Tomorrow, it may be different. This is not interesting until it cements a little further. Did you notice our lead on the Penguins is down to 4 points and no games-in-hand? I noticed that. Anyway. What I did look at is what is definitely true, because some things have already taken shape.

For example, with the Kings' and Flames' wins yesterday, Columbus has been officially eliminated from contention. Yes, they can technically finish the season with 77 points, and Calgary, LA, and Colorado each have 76. But since the Flames still have 1 game remaining against the Kings, and 2 against the Avalanche, at least one of those teams will definitely gain at least 2 points this season, so Columbus has now been mathematically eliminated.

In news more interesting to us, after last night's win over the Islanders, neither they nor the Hurricanes can catch the Rangers any longer. The Rangers are sitting at 93 points. If the Islanders win their remaining 13 games, they will finish with 92. Meanwhile, the 'Canes could win out and finish with 93, tying the Rangers. But at best, Carolina would end up with 39 regulation/overtime wins, and the Rangers already have 40. So, they can't catch us either.

I know it's unusual to talk about clinching a playoff spot when you're a team in the hunt for the Presidents' Trophy, but we're Ranger fans: we don't take anything for granted. With the Islanders, Hurricanes, and Canadiens unable to overtake us, that leaves us worried about Toronto, Tampa, Buffalo, and Winnipeg (the four remaining teams outside the playoff picture right now). The best of that group is Winnipeg, who can finish the season with 98 points and 41 regulation/overtime wins (Buffalo can also finish with 98 points, but with only 38 ROW). Because the Rangers have already beaten the Jets in the season series, tying them in points and ROW would be good enough.

What does all of this mean? It means the Rangers are 5 points from clinching a playoff spot, as long as those 5 points include at least one more regulation or overtime win. Or, they're 6 points from clinching, no matter how they get them. Not bad!

Incidentally, because the bubble in the West is currently a few points stronger than the bubble in the East, the Blues, despite having an NHL-best 97 points, are still 8 points with 1 regulation/OT win, or 9 points any way, away from clinching. Which means that despite last week's skid, the Rangers are not only tied (with those same Blues) for fewest regulation losses in the NHL, they are also the closest NHL team to clinching a playoff spot.

14 games to go...