Him: Man, we were right about the Bruins. We were right about the Wild. We're about to be right about Florida.
Me: It's so easy to be right!
Him: Yeah.
Me: Here's who else we're right about: Ottawa. Ottawa is bullshit.
Him: Yeah. Who is more bullshit: Ottawa or NJ? Ottawa is +2. NJ is -3, and they're 8-1 in shootouts.
Me: Ooh, that's a good question.
Him: I think they'll both make the playoffs, along with the Leafs.
Me: I think Jersey is more likely to rise or fall. They're all over the place. Ottawa is more consistent: they're going to keep being an average team and therefore fall in the standings.
Him: Yeah.
Me: The Devils have more potential to pull win streaks out of their asses, but they also have more potential to remember that Brodeur is 86, and, if Kovalchuk gets bored, lose for 3 weeks. So I guess that means Ottawa is more bullshit, because they are definitely way above where they should be, whereas the Devils just might be based on which versions of their stars show up that day?
Him: I'm kind of leaning towards NJ. They are 16th in scoring and 16th in scoring against; -3 goal differential; record partially driven by being 8-1 in shootouts.
Me: Ottawa is 3rd in scoring and 4th-worst in scoring against.
Him: Yeah, Ottawa is bad on defense, but they can score.
Me: Hmm.
Him: NJ is just mediocre across the board, and they're just good (and/or lucky) in shootouts. NJ has a great PK, but that's not enough. They're a perfect 7th-10th place team.
Me: But, so is Ottawa...
Him: Yeah.
Me: ...and Washington, and Toronto...
Him: The Caps will win their bullshit division.
Me: And no one else in that division will make the damn playoffs.
Him: Nope. The Atlantic Division will likely send 4.
Me: Has it happened in the past that a team wins a division that otherwise wouldn't even have made the playoffs, in the NHL?
Him: Good question. I don't know. I used to feel bad for teams finishing 9th and just missing the playoffs, but these teams are bullshit teams, at least this year.
Me: But, I can see why I would feel bad, in other circumstances. If the Devils and Senators were a little more consistent, I'd feel bad that one of those teams missed the playoffs so the shitty Caps could get in in their shitty division. (Except, of course, fuck the Devils.)
Him: Of course. The Devils are good at penalty killing and shooutouts and are completely mediocre at everything else. I'd rather have a team that can score.
Me: I mean, the old saying goes that defense wins the big games.
Him: Sure, you're going to have to win some close games, but long playoff runs are driven by having offensive talent, I think. Bruins, Blackhawks, Pens, Wings: all potent offenses. You can get far with a hot goalie, but only so far. At least now. Maybe that saying was more true when the Devils were trapping it up and clutching and grabbing everyone in sight.
Me: But now that the NHL has replaced clutching and grabbing with career-ending headshots...
Him: Yes.
Me: The Leafs are better than both of those teams, right?
Him: I think so. Those 3 teams are all close to each other, but if I had to rank them, I'd say Leafs - Sens - Devils.
Me: I don't know why, but for me, the Leafs are an easy pick, and the Sens and Devils are a clear notch worse and hard to rank. I've only seen each play a handful of games this year, but watching the Leafs has felt like watching a real hockey team.
Him: Yeah.
Me: (Incidentally, your Daily Bruins Report: on pace for +132; Pythagorean Expectation on pace for a 125-point season.)
Him: Man. Hey, that Ville Leino contract was bad.
Me: Is that what we're gonna blame Buffalo on?
Him: Not solely, but that was a bad move. 6 yrs, $27 million?
Me: Man, Ville Leino is not nearly that good! 4.5 for 6! In 2010-11, he had 19 goals and 34 assists.
Him: They're paying him for one good year, when his shooting percentage was 16.2%. You have to ask yourself, is he a guy who is going to sustain a 16.2%? And I would say no, he is not.
Me: In the previous season, in which he only played 55 games, he netted 11 points.
Him: Since the lockout, for players who have played a minimum of 300 games, 3 players have a shooting percentage higher than 16.2%: Alex Tanguay, Andrew Brunette, and Thomas Holmstrom.
Me: Wow. And what's the NHL average?
Him: Oy, good question. I'm not sure, but banking on Ville Leino to sustain 16.2% is lunacy.
Me: ~30 shots a game, ~2.75 goals a game? So, 9%?
Him: Yeah, it's somewhere around 8-10.
Me: Damn, that is way overperforming.
Him: Some guys have higher percentages. Those guys have done it playing a lot of games. I do not give Ville Leino 6 yrs, $27 mil for one year of 16.2%. He's, like, a 3rd-line center.
Me: 6 years! After his 2nd season in the league, no less! On 2 different teams!
Him: Yeah. That contract is ridiculously bad.
Me: I don't care about value; you don't give a guy 6 years after his second season in the league, except in very specific circumstances.
Him: Right.
Me: But what else are the Sabres doing wrong? Let me look at CapGeek. Oh, they are overpaying everybody.
Him: Right. They basically have 2 guys who can score, right? Pominville and Vanek?
Me: Derek Roy, Drew Stafford, Brad Boyes: $4 million each.
Him: All right, lunch. We'll continue later.
No comments:
Post a Comment