Sunday, October 3, 2010

Defense clear; forwards, not so much

And so, the morning after our final preseason game (in which we got routed by Ottawa 8-5, but really kinda played our B-squad - Avery, Callahan, Gaborik, Frolov, Staal, and Girardi all sat out, and we temporarily recalled Weise and Zuccarello), some cuts are made, and the defensive picture shapes up. At the end of the day, Michael Sauer seems to have outplayed Pavel Valentenko and Ryan McDonagh, who were both cut this morning. It looks like Sauer (who incidentally would have had to clear waivers to be sent back down, while McDonagh and Valentenko did not) earns the #6-spot (behind Staal, Girardi, Del Zotto, Rozsival, and Gilroy), while Eminger lives at #7 (possibly splitting time not only with kids who need to be sat every so often, like Gilroy, Sauer, and Del Zotto, but also with veterans who might not still have a full 82+playoffs in them, like Rozsival). It wouldn't make sense to have a kid in the #7 spot, when you could instead give that kid full playing time in Hartford.

I have to admit I'm personally a little sad it's Sauer over Valentenko - I liked the latter a lot when I saw him - but that's based on only one game I saw him play in, and Kevin DeLury (whose opinion is usually pretty well aligned with mine, and I am right about everything) claims that Sauer outplayed both Valentenko and McDonagh throughout the preseason games (of which he, unlike myself, saw all 6). So, good for Michael Sauer. Get to know his face.

This trims the roster down to 25: the two goalies with which we will start the season, the seven defensemen with which it seems like we will start the season...and 16 goddamn forwards. The forward situation got no clearer today, with no cuts being made. I wonder if Torts is just waiting to see what happens with our injury situation (Drury still out with a broken finger, Prospal out for at least 2 weeks with a sore knee), or if he wants to see something more.

Larry Brooks tweeted the idea of starting the season with this full roster, relegating Prospal and Drury both to Injured Reserve to get down to the maximum roster size of 23, but because players on IR still count against the cap, that would push us over the salary cap - the current Rangers roster salary, including 2 goalies, 7 defensemen, and all 15 forwards (remember Fedotenko is unsigned) adds up to $59,126,667 - only $273,333 under the $59.4 million cap, and Fedotenko (who made $1.8 million last season) without a contract.

Brooks is right that, assuming a comparable salary this season for Fedotenko, this would technically be a legal move because of the bonus cushion: if some of your cap hit is made up of conditional bonuses (that may or may not get paid out), you may exceed the cap by those bonuses, up to 7.5% of the total cap ($4.455 million this season). We do have conditional bonuses in there: $1.4 million to Prospal, $212,500 to Del Zotto, and $162,500 to Stepan, which combine with the remaining space under the cap to give us $2,048,333 with which to sign Fedotenko. However, if these bonuses do end up getting paid out, any amount that we've gone over the cap will count against next year's cap. To me, that doesn't sound worth it in order to keep 16 goddamn forwards on the roster, when so many are mediocre. Especially when Todd White is making $2.375 million, so cutting his salary alone would get us under the cap even with 24 players.

Another option would be to place Prospal or Drury on Long-Term Injured Reserve, in which case their salaries would not count against the cap. But on LTIR, a player must miss at least 24 days and at least 10 games, whereas on regular IR he only has to miss 7 days. With both Prospal and Drury having the possibility of coming back within the first week of the season, it's totally asinine to suggest LTIR (and I think it would be silly to put them on IR at all).

The smartest thing to do is probably cut a forward or two (12 play each night, what the shitballs are we doing with 16?) and move forward with a 23-man (normal NHL-maximum-size) roster. Even if we were to cut our cheapest two forwards (Boyle and Kennedy), we'd end up with $1,348,333 to sign Fedotenko before touching the bonus cushion. It goes up from there quickly: if we were to cut our next two cheapest (Prust and Anisimov), we'd have $1.895 million free, more than Fedotenko made last season. So, really, it would be best to cut down to within the NHL maximum roster size without bothering with IR (which only delays the decision-making process by a week or two anyway), and thus to not have any cap problems upon signing Fedotenko.

Speaking of Fedotenko-has-no-contractenko, word is that he and the Rangers are talking. That's good - at this point, he's made a solid case for his inclusion on this squad, and I'd like to see us sign him for something reasonable. Bear in mind that he made $1.8 million last season.

So, expect some number of moves to be made between now and Saturday night's opener in Buffalo. We'll likely sign Fedotenko to a contract, and we'll drop (or place on IR) at least two forwards. My votes are for Todd White and anyone else. I guess that could be the other thing Torts is waiting for: it may not make sense to make cuts before a contract with Fedotenko is in place.

Did I mention that real, official NHL hockey starts in four fucking days, and the Rangers start in six? No? Let me try now: fucking hockey is coming holy shit yes!

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