Thursday, July 21, 2011

Confirmed

Steve Zipay confirms: 4 years, $4.2 million per year. My math gives us just under $7 million to sign Callahan, probably Eminger, and whomever else.

Happy arbitration-was-canceled day

Oh boy, and just in the nick of time, too. Long-term deal reached by the Rangers and Dubinsky. No details confirmed yet, rumor is 4 years at $4.2 million per year. I'm pretty sure that, like, 2 hours ago, I blogged the sentence "Surely the Rangers would have offered, like, 3 years at $4.2 million, no?" Fine, whatever, fuck it. We don't have to hear about more Brandon Dubinsky contract bullshit for the next 4 years.

I like this thing so goddamn much I'm linking to it a second time. I should embed it in a sidebar or something.

Happy arbitration day

Now Brooks is reporting that the arbitration offers are $2.8 million from the Rangers and $4.6 million from Dubinsky, and both sides expect the offer to come in between $3.8m and $4.4m. It's a 1-year arbitration, which makes a lot more sense to me than the 2 years I had heard. But I still don't get it. Dubinsky wanted $5+ million for a multi-year deal, and couldn't get it from the Rangers, so he let it go to arbitration, which is for a 1-year deal, where he requested $4.4 million? What? None of this makes any sense to me. I thought the original fight was over length of contract? By letting it go to arbitration, it becomes a one-year deal! Surely the Rangers would have offered, like, 3 years at $4.2 million, no?

Whatever, this whole thing is dumb. Here's this.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Ruh-roh, Raggy

Hey, remember yesterday when I said this?

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I hope you'll forgive me for getting a little nervous right now, given how long Dubinsky's contract negotiations lasted two years ago. I see no indication that Dubinsky's agent then, Kurt Overhardt, is not still his agent now.
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Well, today, Larry Brooks tweeted this [sic]:

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Unless theres dramatic shift, Dubinsky headed to arb on Thur, sides not close enough yet on longterm. Talks continue with Callahan, arb 7/28
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Yep. Fantastic. Hey Kurt, let's try to have the guy at training camp on time this time around, eh?

OK, fine, I didn't want to have to fucking do this, but since it's clearly going to come up, let's talk about what arbitration actually means. Siiiiiiiiiiigh.

Dubinsky elected salary arbitration against the Rangers. That means he feels the qualifying offer extended to him as a restricted free agent ($2 million at a year - this figure is set by the CBA based on his 2010-11 salary and was not determined by the Rangers in any way) is insufficient given his level of play. Should the Rangers and Dubinsky reach a different agreement and sign a new contract before the arbitration (as they did with Sauer and Boyle), it will stand and the arbitration will not occur.

When they don't by Thursday, Dubi and the Rangers will have an arbitration hearing. A third party (one of 8 Salary Arbitrators agreed upon by the NHL and NHLPA for this off-season) will hear Dubi's salary recommendation, the Rangers' salary recommendation, and arguments about Dubi's overall value from both parties (what kind of evidence is or is not valid in these arguments is subject to a series of rules I don't care to understand right now). Because it was Dubinsky who filed for arbitration, the Rangers also get to elect whether it will be a one-year or two-year arbitration. I used the Magic of the Internet to get Newsday's Steve Zipay's opinion, and he expects they will go for two.

At the conclusion of the hearing, the Arbitrator will elect a salary he or she feels is appropriate for Dubinsky. The salary will take all evidence, as well as both parties' starting offers, into consideration, but there is no restriction that the appointed salary must be between the two parties' starting offers: it could be more than Dubi asked for or less than the Rangers offered. The only rule is that it cannot be less than 85% of Dubi's salary last year (his was $2 million, so the salary is guaranteed to be at least $1.7 million). The Arbitrator may also override the Rangers' length request (one-year or two-year), but that is apparently unlikely to happen.

If the Rangers approve of the salary decision, then Dubi must also accept it. They will then sign a contract for the length determined (1 or 2 years), at that salary each year.

The Rangers do have the option, however, to reject the arbitration offer, subject to some restrictions. Generally, they must decide within 48 hours of the conclusion of the hearing. However, they are also restricted, as a team, by the total number of arbitration rejections they are allowed to make. Because they still have two players on their way to arbitration, the Rangers are permitted to reject only one arbitration offer. So, the Rangers are given until 48 hours after Callahan's hearing to determine whether or not to reject Dubinsky's result. That way they can choose where to spend their one rejection (the other offer would then have to be accepted). If the Rangers and Callahan come to terms before then, the Rangers of course lose the extra window of decision-making time.

Should the Rangers go ahead and reject the arbitration offer, if it is a one-year arbitration, Dubinsky immediately becomes an unrestricted free agent. If it is a two-year arbitration, they and Dubi are committed to a one-year deal at the arbitration offer, after which Dubi will be an unrestricted free agent.

I believe that at any point, the two sides can just reach an agreement independent of what the arbiter decides. I'm not sure exactly how it works, but if they decide on a contract after the hearing, but before the deadline for rejection (which, again, is extended due to Callahan's hearing next week), the Rangers could theoretically reject the offer, which would make Dubinsky an unrestricted free agent, freeing him up to turn around and sign the new deal.

However, that would spend the Rangers' one rejection for the off-season, thus committing them to whatever the Arbitrator decides in the Callahan hearing, should that come to pass. So it stands to reason they wouldn't want to do that until Callahan is resolved. Still, if I'm not mistaken, the two sides are only bound to the Arbitrator's decision if they can't come to some other terms, regardless of the timeline (until they sign the contract, that is). I think.

At the end of the day, the conclusion is some combination of "Dubinsky and Overhardt are once again playing hardball" and "Sather is once again undervaluing key components," though I'm inclined to lean a little more toward the former. Two years ago, those heels being dug in resulted in Dubi missing most of training camp, a stunted start to his season, and frustration on both sides (which I wouldn't be entirely surprised to learn is contributing to this year's issues). It's probably also a part of the reason a lot of Ranger fans don't consider him to be in the running for the big C on the sweater (the lower-drama Callahan is widely considered the front-runner). And all that was when Dubinsky didn't actually have any bargaining power (he was not eligible for arbitration: if he didn't accept a deal with the Rangers, he wasn't playing in the NHL at all).

I wonder what will come of it this time around.

Monday, July 18, 2011

Boyle, etc.

Sorry, work's been hectic. Here's the short summary. Boyle signed, 3 years, $1.7 million per year. Great! Cheaper than I expected him to come. Here's the quick-and-easy summary:

Under the summer cap, by my math, we've got $13,609,166 left to sign Callahan, Dubinsky, and whomever else we like. This relies on the assumption that our two-way contracts are costing us $2.5 million under the summer cap, which is an approximation I came up with and have not confirmed. We've already committed $2.4m to Cally and $2m to Dubi in qualifying offers, leaving us about $9.2 million to give them raises and sign whomever else this summer.

For the season's cap, let's make some bold assumptions to make things easy to understand. Let's assume we end up with four two-way contracts on the roster for opening night: Zuccarello, Stepan, McDonagh, and Del Zotto. That'd leave us with $11,166,666 to spend on Dubinsky, Callahan, and anyone else we sign. Again, $4.4 million is already committed to Dubi's and Cally's qualifiers, leaving about $6.8 million to give them raises and sign anyone else.

Because that second figure is lower, it's probably safer to use it (even though it's more ambiguous because it's based on who ends up on the roster). Even this lower number ($6,766,666 after Dubi and Cally's $4.4m) sounds like plenty of room to get done what we have to get done.

As for deadlines, Dubinsky's arbitration hearing is scheduled for this Thursday, while Cally's is a week later. There is no reason these deals shouldn't be done by then, but I hope you'll forgive me for getting a little nervous right now, given how long Dubinsky's contract negotiations lasted two years ago. I see no indication that Dubinsky's agent then, Kurt Overhardt, is not still his agent now.

That said, according to everyone who has said anything on the subject, we have every reason to expect these contracts to be signed before their respective arbitration hearings. Here's hoping!

Friday, July 8, 2011

Arbitration Dates

For the sake of being comprehensive, here are the arbitration dates for the remaining Rangers that have filed for arbitration (and have not since signed). This is the date on which that player's arbitration hearing would take place, if he and the Rangers do not agree to contract terms before then. If the hearing takes place, the player's agent will submit a value they believe is fair, and a third-party arbiter will make a determination of that player's actual value, likely somewhere between the agent's offer and the team's qualifying offer.

Should it come to that, the team has the option of whether or not to accept the arbiter's ruling for a one-year deal at that value. If they do, the player must accept the offer. If they do not, the player becomes a free agent.

We shouldn't see these dates as hearing dates just yet, though. Much more reasonable for now to think of them as deadlines. Arbitration hearings will go on only if the Rangers and the players do not reach deals first, which we should expect them to. So, for now, think of these as the dates by which Sather should have already signed these players, or else things will get kinda hairy:

Brandon Dubinsky (qualified at $2 million): July 21
Brian Boyle (qualified at $605,000): July 25
Ryan Callahan (qualified at $2.4 million): July 28

Oh Man Let's Do Some Numbers Today

It's Friday -- Friday. Gotta do math on Friday.

As you've probably heard, of the five restricted free agents we gave qualifying offers to (Matt Gilroy has since signed a 1-year, $1 million deal with the Lightning (a deal I'd be surprised if we didn't also offer him, but whatever)), the four who were eligible filed for arbitration: that's Dubinsky, Callahan, Boyle, and Sauer. Anisimov was ineligible. I wouldn't expect any of those people to actually hit arbitration: it's just another step before we offer, ideally, all 5 of those guys reasonable deals, and they all stay on.

As you may or may not have heard, step one of five happened this morning, and we signed Mike Sauer to a 2-year deal at $1.25 million per year. Awesome, perfect. Then, a few hours later, we agreed to terms with Anisimov: 2 years, $1.875 per. Sweet. Three to go. So, that, along with the Feds re-signing and the acquisitions of Rupp and Richards, put us in a place where we should, if you'll forgive the glorious double meaning, re-Cap.

First, recall the numbers we're working with: this season's cap is $64.3 million, which puts the summer cap at $70.73 million. Next, we look at the one-way contracts we've got on the roster, which count against the summer cap no matter what:

Forwards
Marian Gaborik - $7.5 m
Brad Richards - $6,666,667
Wojtek Wolski - $3.8 m
Sean Avery - $1.9375 m
Artem Anisimov - $1.875 m
Michael Rupp - $1.5 m
Ruslan Fedotenko - $1.4 m
Erik Christensen - $0.925 m
Brandon Prust - $0.8 m

Defensemen
Wade Redden - $6.5 m
Marc Staal - $3.975 m
Dan Girardi - $3.325 m
Mike Sauer - $1.25 m

Goalies
Henrik Lundqvist - $6.875 m
Martin Biron - $0.875 m

Chris Druries
Chris Drury - $3,716,667

That puts us at $52,920,834 currently tied up by one-way contracts under the summer cap. Of that, failing moving someone like Wolski, we can expect $46,420,834 to still be around under the season cap, when Redden's contract stops counting.

Then, we've got the two-way contracts. For each of these guys, I'll list their full potential cap hit for this season, followed by, in parentheses, what I am guessing their summer cap hit is. Unfortunately, summer cap hit is based on number of days the player was on the previous season's roster, which is data I don't know how to find. So, I'm basing it on games played. This is going to be inaccurate for everyone except Derek Stepan (who played 100% of last season, which is easy to calculate), but it's something.

Mats Zuccarello - $1.75 m (around $0.5 m?)
Derek Stepan - $0.875 m ($0.875 m)
Ryan McDonagh - $1.3 m (around $0.45 m?)
Michael Del Zotto - $1.0875 m (around $0.55 m?)
A bunch of other guys like Kris Newbury - various salaries (around $0.1 m?)

According to my Very Scientific Guessing, two-way contracts probably add up to about $2.5 million, give-or-take, against the summer cap. As for the season cap, we'll have to do a different kind of guessing, with respect to which of these guys makes the roster. Let's make the bold assumption that the four 2-way contracts I named will make it, and all achieve their performance bonuses, but no one else will. I know that's probably false, but it gives us at least a number to work with: $5.0125 million for those four dudes.

So, for all our currently-signed players, that brings us to a summer cap hit of something like $55,420,834, leaving us $15,309,166. As for the season cap, if we assume (Wolski,) Zucc, DZ, Step, and McD all make it (surely the latter two will), we've got a hit of $51,433,334, leaving us $12,866,666. Bear in mind that while the summer cap hit is pretty set in stone, we can do normal things to affect our season cap hit, like putting Del Zotto's or Zuccarello's cap hits back on the Whale.

And then there's the remaining free agents we need to sign. On the top of that list are our RFAs: Callahan, Dubinsky, and Boyle. We've extended qualifying offers to all four, which shake down as follows:

Ryan Callahan - $2.4 m
Brandon Dubinsky - $2 m
Brian Boyle - $605,000

That's $5.005 m we've promised in qualifying offers, but we can expect to offer all four of those players much healthier contracts than their qualifying offers demand - especially since they've all filed for arbitration. What that basically means is that, as the summer cap flies, we've got $60,425,834 tied up, leaving us $10,304,166 on raises to Callahan, Dubinsky, and Boyle, and anyone else we wanna grab.

My guess is that Callahan and Dubinsky's salaries will double, and Boyle's will do more than that, going up to like $2.5 m. If I'm right, that'd leave us $3,969,166 to work with over the summer, which is plenty of room for me to be wrong about my summer cap calculations, plenty of room for us to leave Del Zotto and Zuccarello on the roster for opening night if we want to, and probably some room left over to pursue another inexpensive free agent or two, if we feel the need.

Saturday, July 2, 2011

Brad Richards

According to Darren Dreger, "Deal not signed, but Richards chooses Rangers." OK, now I guess all that's left is waiting to see how much other teams were able to drive up our contract with him, as expected...

EDIT: 9 years at 6.5 per. Good value, WAY too long.

Friday, July 1, 2011

A chronological children's treasury of my tweets today

--Wait, so then who the hell is signing Jagr? Sather, pony up! 1 year, $1 million! Why not?

--Flyers: "We have signed Handzus." Handzus's Agent: "Wait, what?"

--[Re-tweet from Larry Brooks] If I'm NYR I have Doughty offer sheet ready to go 1 minute after Kings sign Richards.

--Oh, good. Yet ANOTHER reason Pittsburghers are going to hate the second-best player in their franchise's history.

--So, Ilya Bryzgalov plus Jaromir Jagr = 9 million dollars?

--11.5 million too much for Carter+Richards; 9 million just right for Jagr+Bryzgalov. Also, boo Santa Claus.

--a crazy person is running the flyers.

--brian boucher to carolina is a GREAT deal for brian boucher and his family

--But if the Rangers land Mike Rupp, how will he score his only 6 goals a year against the Rangers?

--Mike Rupp: "It's a place I love playing on the road." Obviously.

--Seriously, I need to find Paul Holmgren's therapist and get him to prescribe for me whatever he's giving Holmgren.

--If Ville Leino is worth $27 million over 6 years, then I deserve at least a training camp tryout.

--Actually, if the Blue Jackets are paying Wisniewski for his lewd sign language skills, then I also deserve a training camp tryout.

--Darren Dreger says the Flyers are also making a pitch for Brad Richards. Do leprechaun gold and unicorn kisses count against the cap?

--[Re-tweet from Larry Brooks] All free agent signings in Winnipeg must pledge to buy most expensive season tickets for 10 years.

--Wacky free agent day. Tons of insane overpayments to mediocre players, none by Glen Sather. Great free agent day.

Mike Rupp

3 years, $1.5 million per year. I'm calling it a safety move. He is a mediocre player who is very dangerous when it comes to scoring goals against the Rangers. Now he can't do that anymore!