Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Gomez Gone

Well, Sather is willing to shake things up after all. In what appears to be a cap-clearing move (one of the two it was possible to make), Scottie Gomez is now a Montréal Canadien. In return, we got a fellow named Chris Higgins. (We also traded 2 prospects each, Tom Pyatt and Mike Busto for Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valentenko. Valentenko and McDonagh are both defenseman.) Higgins is a 26-year-old, 6', 202-lb center who has scored 151 points in 282 games with the Canadiens. He's nothing special. But he does clear out a substantial portion of Gomez's team-leading $7.4 million cap hit.

I'm sad to see Scottie go, I really liked him. But he'll do great in Montréal, and he was one of the only legitimate moves (with Drury) we could have made to clear space. Redden and Rozsival will not be taken off of our hands unless they're coupled with something good, and Hank is off-limits. I think his game this season will be much better than it was last season, and I'm sad that his time with us couldn't have been more productive.

Still, this feels like a positive step toward the future. I wonder if Torts will actually make Dubinsky our first line center, let Drury do his job as second line center, and let Anisimov, Higgins, and Boyle compete for 3rd and 4th line. I also wonder if this isn't just Step One: the cap room this clears us allows us to try to take on a contract like Heatley's without bleeding ourselves dry. Girardi and Rozsival for Heatley? Too many possibilities. Stop thinking about a first line made up of Dubinsky, Callahan, and Heatley. Right now, we're here to talk about one trade.

All in all, I'm a little sad, as my Dad is, about still not having an identity. This major shakeup happens every off-season now, and it's hard to think about anyone besides Lundqvist as a "career Ranger." Hopefully some of that will start to settle as we build our team around youth. For now, we wish all the best to Scott Gomez in Montréal, and we look to what Sather's next move is gonna be.

Better clarification on Heatley

Apparently Heatley's contract includes a $4 million bonus paid to him for still being on the team July 1 (that date was picked because it's the beginning of signing season, not the other way around). So, that's why Ottawa is panicking. That is all.

Trade rumors

Times like these, my blog pretty much becomes a mouthpiece for Blue Notes, which keeps breaking stories faster than anyone else. The important bit here is Dany Heatley. Apparently after their discussions with us fell through Friday evening, Ottawa proceeded to do absolutely nothing with Heatley, who really does not seem to want to be a Senator anymore. Now, they're getting desperate to make a move, what with tomorrow being July 1.

Let me attempt to explain something I don't fully understand: if Ottawa can trade Heatley away, they'd be subject to whatever terms they came to with the team they trade to. However, the new season starts July 1 by some kind of official reckoning - this is what makes RFAs become UFAs on this date. Apparently, Ottawa would have to begin paying Heatley's '09-'10 salary starting tomorrow. That's a lot of money. Which is why they're looking to move him today. Or something like that - the point is: Ottawa is desperate to move him by tomorrow, so they might be lowering their standards.

I'd do Drury and Redden for Heatley in a heartbeat. Although Drury would fit on the current Sens even less than Heatley does.

According to Steve Zipay (of Blue Notes), the names being tossed around the Heatley deal are Dubinsky, Zherdev, and Rozsival. I'd be ok with Heatley for Rozsival and Zherdev, I think? I'd hate to see Dubi go for him. I know Heatley is a way better hockey player than Brandon Dubinsky, but Dubi's just a kid, and I'd like to start actually building the team around some of our own.

Ah, well, no sense speculating: there are just way too many possibilities right now to start worrying about this. The point is: things might still be happening, and we'll know more when they start to actually happen. For now, relax! Have a beer!

As we expected

...word on the street is Dubi, Cally, and Korpikoski all got their qualifying offers. No surprises. Expect these to total somewhere around $3 million, I think? I imagine they'll all accept. I imagine that by noon Wednesday, some of this will solidify.

Monday, June 29, 2009

Congratulations, Torts

A quick moment taken away from roster calculations to congratulate John Tortorella on being named one of the two assistant coaches for the 2010 U.S. Olympic men's ice hockey team. Way to go, Torts! In tribute, I'll share what came out of his mouth at camp today (everything that comes out of his mouth is good news for us): "As far as the lines are concerned, as far as the makeup of our team, from Scott Gomez right on down, the only guy I know is gonna be there is Hank. He's gonna be our starting goalie. But other than that, it's wide open. And I'm not afraid of youth. It's going to be done on merit."

More thoughts on roster

Reading this Larry Brooks article and trying to make heads or tails of it. The point of the piece is that the Rangers traded a 2010 pick to the Kings for 4th line center Brian Boyle. Yet another sign we won't be retaining Blair Betts. This makes me hell of sad. I guess we figure Boyle's gonna be way cheaper? But fine, whatever. The point Brooks makes is that we're sad to see the 3rd round pick go, because we could maybe have used it to get Phil Kessel from Boston. Could we have picked up Kessel while keeping room to afford a full roster by holding onto that one pick? Brooks thinks so. If he's right about that, then yeah, the Boyle move was horrible, because yes of course I would give up those picks to have Phil Kessel. Is that realistic? No idea, and I don't care anymore, 'cause it's off the table now.

But in making this point, Brooks brings up a lot of roster info that I'm having trouble understanding. The first point Brooks makes is very interesting. Boyle comes with the modest price tag of $832,000. Remember how I said we weren't going to offer Sjostrom a qualifying offer? Yeah, the number we failed to offer him was $882,000. So Boyle's worth .83 AND a pick, but Sjos isn't worth .88? That's interesting. I guess we really, really figure we're going to have to let Betts go, and we need a cheap replacement??

Then Brooks goes on to make a claim about money and players that I'm having some trouble filling out. But to get you there, first I need to fill you in on a few details I've neglected:

1. Back on May 1, the Rangers extended Valiquette's contract for another year for $725,000. That's important to get down. I couldn't be happier about it - as I've said many times, there's not a starter/backup pair in the league I'd rather build my team around.

2. It's time we mentioned prospects. I was gonna do a whole entry on just that, but I'm done saving the info: we should talk about it briefly now. Matt Gilroy, defenseman from Boston University, won 2009's Hobey Baker Award (given annually to NCAA Hockey's best individual). Also, he signed with us. This is not a small deal. He is supposedly fan-fucking-tastic. He's costing us $1.8 million, and that seems totally worth it to me. I'm...dreaming of a Gilroy-Staal top pair... (that was White Christmas)

3. Remember that Artem Anisimov character? We signed him for around $0.8 million. Whatever, sure.

4. In addition to talking about how Antropov, Sjostrom and Betts likely won't be back with us, Brooks mentions that we "won't have unwanted free agent Colton Orr." So, add him to the list of people we don't want back. You know: the fourth line. For some reason.

So, anyway, the point is that Brooks makes this claim that we have already committed $49.4 million to 2 goalies, 5 d-men, 5 centers, and 4 wingers (leaving us $7.4 million to sign a couple of defensemen and like 9 wings). I'll grant that we're in trouble similar to that, but I'm having trouble getting as far as he did. Here's what I have:

2 goalies (Lundqvist, Valiquette) = 6.9 + 0.7 = 7.6
5 d-men (Redden, Rozsival, Girardi, Staal, Gilroy) = 6.5 + 5 + 1.6 + 0.8 + 1.8 = 15.7
4 centers (Drury, Gomez, Anisimov, Boyle) = 7.1 + 7.4 + 0.8 + 0.8 = 16.1
3 wings (Avery, Voros, Zherdev) = 1.9 + 1 + 3.3 = 6.2
Total = $45.6 million for 2 goalies, 5 d-men, 4 centers, and 3 wingers, assuming Zherdev accepts our offer.

Now, that's not great as it is, but I'm trying to figure out where Brooks gets an extra wing and an extra center, especially totaling $3.8 million. Brooks specifically mentions that his numbers don't include Callahan (who, being up for arbitration, will likely resign with us very soon for significantly more than his current wage). Even if the numbers include Dubinsky (who, being an RFA, will end up back with us for right around the $633,333 he made last season), then I'm still a $3.2 million winger short of Brooks's numbers. The only person I can think of that might possibly fit this description would be Cally, who Brooks specifically excluded. So: maybe my numbers are a little bit off, is the point. But still, this is an approximate picture of where we are. To recap:

Under Contract
Centers:
Scott Gomez
Chris Drury
Artem Anisimov
Brian Boyle
Wings:
Sean Avery
Aaron Voros
Defensemen:
Wade Redden
Michal Rozsival
Dan Girardi
Marc Staal
Matt Gilroy
Goalies:
Henrik Lundqvist
Stephen Valiquette

Probably signing with us soon
Centers:
Brandon Dubinsky
Wings:
Nikolai Zherdev
Lauri Korpikoski
Ryan Callahan

Probably leaving us soon
Centers:
Blair Betts
Wings:
Nik Antropov
Fredrik Sjostrom
Colton Orr

No idea whatsoever about Derek Morris or Paul Mara, but I'd expect one or both to go. That would leave us wanting to make a couple of defensemen and 4 or so wings out of basically no money. I imagine we've got to make some kind of deal this summer. Once again, here we are, over the summer, wondering about the New York Strangers. Again, it's all speculation, and again, I'm feeling...cautious. I'll keep you posted. Leave your thoughts in comments!

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Salary cap, team update

You'll recall my previous discussion about our current team, a convenient chart from which will now be reprinted for your convenience.

Under contract (numbers listed are cap hit, not salary)
Scott Gomez - $7.4 million
Chris Drury - $7.1 million
Sean Avery - $1.9 million
Aaron Voros - $1 million
Wade Redden - $6.5 million
Michal Rozsival - $5 million
Dan Girardi - $1.6 million
Marc Staal - $0.8 million
Henrik Lundqvist - $6.9 million

Restricted free agents (* means eligible for arbitration)
Nikolai Zherdev *
Lauri Korpikoski
Fredrik Sjostrom *
Brandon Dubinsky
Ryan Callahan *

Unrestricted free agents
Nik Antropov
Blair Betts
Colton Orr
Derek Morris
Paul Mara
Stephen Valiquette

Retired
Markus Naslund

So we're committed to $38.2 million on those 9 players. Which, again, is horrible. The draft weekend news that people miss sometimes is the assignment of the season's salary cap. As expected, it rose marginally. Um...more marginally than you'd think. It went up $100,000. From $56.7 million to $56.8. So, yeah, we're in a pickle. 56.8 - 38.2 = 18.6, for those of you keeping score at home. $18.6 million to resign 10 people and find a replacement for Naslund. And that's just to get back up to as "good" as we were last season. So, yeah, some moves are gonna have to be made.

You know my plan: stick Redden in the minors, free up his salary. But that's not going to happen, I imagine. What likely will happen is we'll try to make some big trade to move Drury or Gomez's salary (since Redden and Roszival are completely unshoppable, and Lundqvist is completely off limits), and use that freedom to build the rest of a roster. So, that's where we stand.

Oh, yeah, and also there's a reason I wrote this post. There are developments.

1. It seems we've offered Nikolai Zherdev a $3.25 million qualifying offer. Yeah, that Nik. I'm not sure how to feel about this. On the one hand, I like Zherdev a lot, and Torts can probably whip him into shape over a season. On the other hand, he's incredibly inconsistent and 18.6 - 3.25 = 15.35!!! We'll see if he accepts it, possibly as soon as tomorrow.

2. Meanwhile, much to my girlfriend's dismay, the other Nik (you know - the consistent one) will almost certainly be departing us. Brooks reports that Sather referred to the contract he requested as "ridiculous." And I'm not sure how a team with $15 million to spend on 10 players comes to terms with a "ridiculous" contract request. I'm sad about this. If I was gonna spend $3 million on a Nik, it probably would have been Antropov. But my guess is that he asked for way more than that - in fact, rumor has it that he's looking to go unrestricted and find a multi-year deal at $5 million or more per. So, yeah - that wasn't gonna happen. I'm sad to see him go, but I guess that's life (when you sign your shitty pair of defensemen for $11.5 million worth of cap space).

3. Sjostrom will likely not return to Broadway this year. Slats revealed, apparently, that he won't be offered the $882,000 offer he'd need to qualify (ie not become an unrestricted free agent this summer). This one I'm sad about. If Zherdev is worth $3 million to us, Sjos is probably worth $1 million. He and Betts have been such a goddamn solid tandem, possibly the most consistent pair of forwards over the 2008-'09 season. Can you imagine how our season would have gone if we replaced our #1 PK unit with a middle-of-the-road PK? Yeah, exactly.

4. Speaking of our Penalty Kill, Steve Zipay reports that Slats thinks Betts "could be wooed by Edmonton." Of course, this means nothing much, but Betts is apparently on the table, I guess. Including an awkward "Tom [Renney] always liked him." I dunno how much credence or value to give to this, but it's interesting that Betts has come up as a give-uppable name before, like, Derek Morris? Whatever, he's a UFA anyway, so we'll see what offers come his way. We can't keep everyone I like.

Overall, in really good news, Sather seems to understand that it's time to concentrate on the youth. When asked about bringing in free agents to help out with our defensive problems, his answer was (thanks, Michael Obernauer) "(Matt) Gilroy, (Bobby) Sanguinetti, (Michael) Del Zotto, (Michael) Sauer, (Corey) Potter - there's five guys who are banging on the door to play...(Tomorrow), that's really the first indication of how serious these guys are about taking the jobs. There is opportunity there." ("Tomorrow" refers to the start of developmental camp.) That's a very promising answer. And while throwing money at Zherdev might seem a little weird, and losing Antropov is sad, it looks like an overall trend to concentrate on the youth, not to overspend on one or two silver bullets. Sure, I'm terrified - we've got major problems - but it's exciting to read headlines like "Sather knows it's time to get younger," even if it's meaningless.

Remember, kids: restricted free agency ends in 3 days. With the Zherdev and Sjostrom questions kinda answered, expect some kind of news on Callahan (eligible for arbitration) as well as Korpikoski and Dubinsky (not) within that time period. Also, as I mentioned, expect an answer from Zherdev.

I'll keep you posted!

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Draft and so on

Well, well, well. It doesn't seem like it was all that long ago that Evgeni Malkin was staring down the barrel of a 2-0 series deficit, or that he was hauling the Conn Smythe down Boulevard of the Allies a few blocks from my office (in fact, it wasn't: it was 28 days ago and 13 days ago, respectively), and yet the 2009-'10 NHL season has already begun. Yes, the draft was this weekend, and as expected, it was full of news that a lot of people made out to be way more interesting than it really was, and also full of news that kinda matters a little.

Let's start with the moment the media has told you to all have been waiting for: your team's first round draft pick. We are led to believe that, in professional sports, a team's future is determined by its first round pick. As we know, the reports of this importance are greatly exaggerated. Unless you're the Pittsburgh Penguins - then, time and time again, the NHL draft will actually reshape your franchise from "move to Kansas City" to "win the Cup." Anyway, the point is: just like everyone else, we picked the guy we thought was the best guy available when it was our turn. We picked a kid named Chris Kreider. Some will tell you this was a horrible plan. These people miss the point: a hockey team like ours's problems do not get solved by bringing one high schooler into the system. That's dumb. Kreider is, apparently, the fastest skater eligible for the draft this year. He's also 6'2", 201 lbs. That sounds like a good combination, and a good guy to bring into your system and work on. Good work. We'll see how he is in a few years, when we hopefully bring him onto the squad. That's the whole analysis. He's a high schooler. Next year, he'll most likely be playing hockey for Boston College. So let BC worry about whether or not he's the savior. We'll move on to the Rangers.

In even less relevant but somewhat more interesting news, we drafted Ryan Bourque in the third round. This is interesting because, unlike Colton Orr, Ryan actually is the son of the guy you think he might be the son of. Is being as good at hockey as Ray Bourque genetic? I guess we'll see, the end.

To continue in that direction, to news even less relevant and even more interesting, apparently Sather was talking a lot to Senators GM Bryan Murray on Friday night. The word on the street is that Sather wanted to make a big deal for Dany Heatley, but Ottawa was asking too much. What on this squad is too much for Heatley? Must have involved 1-2 of Callahan, Dubinsky, Staal, and Lundqvist. Or, like, 7 players. Anything else probably would have been worth it. But whatever - if Slats is now erring on the side of keeping our kids over getting stars, I'm not sad about it.

There are two things that could actually substantively affect a team's immediate future that happen on draft weekend (again, excepting the Penguins): that team could make a big trade (you know, like, for example, Chris Pronger could become a Philadelphia Flyer), or the salary cap could change in a way that affects that team. Slats didn't make any deals. Guess what my next entry is about.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Mock Draft

With the draft only days away, it is customary for sportswriters who have run out of things to say about, in this case, what a hilarious mistake Marian Hossa made, to write Mock Draft stories. A mock draft is a nice, easy way to shit out a story: first, you take the NHL teams in order, 1 to 30, of when they will get to pick in the first round. Then you take the top 30 highest-ranked prospects eligible to be drafted, also in order. Line them up. Then switch some things around, based on the imaginary conversations among GMs, coaches, and players going on in your head. Finally (and this is the fun part!), write a little paragraph next to each one justifying the choice. Bear in mind that a one-sentence summary of that player's biggest strengths followed by a one-sentence summary of that team's biggest weaknesses will fill a paragraph! If you know NOTHING about the prospect, just talk about the team's needs: the readers will fill in the rest! Wasn't that fun?

Anyway, there are a lot of mock drafts around, and I assure you they're all fascinating, but if you read just one (and God help you if you read more), it should be The Province's Mock Draft of the top 30 phrases that will be used at the actual NHL Draft. Special Thanks right here on the blog go to anyone who turns this into a drinking game for me by Friday.

Hall of Fame

Along with Steve Yzerman, Brett Hull, and Luc Robitaille, our own Brian Leetch will be inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame. The ceremony is November 9. Congratulations to 4 great players, including probably the greatest American-born NHL defenseman, Brian Leetch.