Hey so last week was Matt Cooke Week and then I was in a wedding over the weekend, but a lot has happened that was Positive, from a Hockey Perspective!
We just keep on winning hockey games, first of all. We're 6-0-1 in our last 7, and we're 8-1-1 in the last 10. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have lost a couple, and the Devils have lost enough that even Kovalchuk admits they're probably done for the season. As we keep winning and the right teams keep losing, we're now tied in points and games remaining with Montréal, in 6th (admittedly, Buffalo is 2 points behind us with a game-in-hand). So if Buffalo wins that game-in-hand, 6th, 7th, and 8th are all tied in points and games remaining.
More importantly, we've got a growing gap between us and the 9th-place Hurricanes, and the other teams that we previously considered to be in the race are becoming less and less likely. Here's where things stand right now:
5. Tampa Bay - 91 pts, 7 GR
6. Montréal - 87 pts, 6 GR
7. NEW YORK RANGERS - 87 pts, 6 GR
8. Buffalo - 85 pts, 7 GR
--------------------
9. Carolina - 80 pts, 7 GR
I'm leaving Toronto, Atlanta, and New Jersey off from now on, barring miracles.
Tonight, nothing of import. Tomorrow night: Sabres at Toronto and Hurricanes at Washington at 7:00, Thrashers at Montréal at 7:30, and in case anyone is thinking about trying to catch Tampa (highly unlikely), the Senators are there at 7:30. Go Leafs, Caps, Thrashers, and Sens.
And as for our remaining schedule, not a lot of travel left: we're in Buffalo, on Long Island, and then in Philly before coming to play the Bruins, Thrashers, and Devils to finish the season. If I have time in the next day or two, I will try to post something more interesting than a standings update, but for now, this is good news!
Monday, March 28, 2011
Monday, March 21, 2011
I IS A POET YOU GUYS
So, sometimes I express myself creatively by writing poetry. My favorite form of poem to write is the double dactyl, which I enjoy for the same reasons all we little nerdlings enjoyed haiku in middle school: the rules are very simple to follow, and the form is short, so they often come out amusing. Here are three double dactyls I wrote today, following the announcement that Matt Cooke will be suspended for the remainder of the regular season as well as the first round of the playoffs.
On-the-ice, with-mal-ice,
Matthew David Cooke will
elbow your head or
collide with your knee.
Perspectivelessly,
he thinks that's okay 'cause
he gives to some charities
regularly.
--------------------
Flipacoin, rolladie!
Colin (That's l-I-n)
looked at Cooke's elbow of
Ryan McD.
Uncharact'ristically,
got this one right even
though he's a Pen and there's
no injury!
--------------------
Listen-up! Wisen-up!
Sir Super Mario:
Campbell did his part, now
it's up to you.
The question now is if
unjustifiably
Cooke sees one second of
ice in round two.
On-the-ice, with-mal-ice,
Matthew David Cooke will
elbow your head or
collide with your knee.
Perspectivelessly,
he thinks that's okay 'cause
he gives to some charities
regularly.
--------------------
Flipacoin, rolladie!
Colin (That's l-I-n)
looked at Cooke's elbow of
Ryan McD.
Uncharact'ristically,
got this one right even
though he's a Pen and there's
no injury!
--------------------
Listen-up! Wisen-up!
Sir Super Mario:
Campbell did his part, now
it's up to you.
The question now is if
unjustifiably
Cooke sees one second of
ice in round two.
A lighter note
Highlights from Puck Daddy's latest What We Learned (which is to say, if it wasn't clear, that all the following funny things were said by Puck Daddy and not by me):
Atlanta Thrashers: Say you're fighting for a playoff spot and have a game against a team you're only four points back of. A good way to help your cause is not to give up an 8-spot to them. I'm just sayin'.
Edmonton Oilers: This just in: Taylor Hall is pretty good. Now with math!
New Jersey Devils: Marty Brodeur on the Devs' Friday loss: 'It's a setback. We were doing well.' Problem is, one more setback and the season might be over. Sucks having to win 10 of 11, but maybe next time don't start out the season 0-184-3 or whatever MacLean did.
New York Rangers: Don't look now, but the Rangers have won four in a row and look fairly comfortable in their playoff position. What do you mean, 'games in hand'?
Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers became the first team in the East toback into clinch a playoff spot. Playing nothing but garbage teams for the past two weeks has really helped bring their game together.
Pittsburgh Penguins: 'Penguins players approve of a committee to study head hits.' Maybe that group will send a CSI team to scrape Matt Cooke's elbow for samples of Marc Savard's and Ryan McDonagh's brain matter.
Atlanta Thrashers: Say you're fighting for a playoff spot and have a game against a team you're only four points back of. A good way to help your cause is not to give up an 8-spot to them. I'm just sayin'.
Edmonton Oilers: This just in: Taylor Hall is pretty good. Now with math!
New Jersey Devils: Marty Brodeur on the Devs' Friday loss: 'It's a setback. We were doing well.' Problem is, one more setback and the season might be over. Sucks having to win 10 of 11, but maybe next time don't start out the season 0-184-3 or whatever MacLean did.
New York Rangers: Don't look now, but the Rangers have won four in a row and look fairly comfortable in their playoff position. What do you mean, 'games in hand'?
Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers became the first team in the East to
Pittsburgh Penguins: 'Penguins players approve of a committee to study head hits.' Maybe that group will send a CSI team to scrape Matt Cooke's elbow for samples of Marc Savard's and Ryan McDonagh's brain matter.
In Which Mario Lemieux Probably Does Not Write Another Letter
A note before we begin: it is more important that you read these two articles by Larry Brooks than that you read this. Go read those. Then, if you still have time to read about the Rangers, come back here and read this. Thank you.
Man, I used to hate going to the Igloo, but I fucking love going to the Consol Energy Center.
Game started out with a few "huh?" calls: a missed goalie interference here, a trip-that-wasn't-a-trip-at-all there, Dustin Jeffrey sent to the box for something Matt Cooke did, and so on. Nothing remarkable, but a pretty good hockey game. By the second period, which Torts rightly called "brutal," the action was all Pens, all the time. There was no way we were winning this game on our own.
So the Penguins did us a favor and once again became the Flyers, despite Coach Dan Bylsma's continued, appropriate scratching of Arron Asham in the face of slightly more man-games lost to injury than even the Rangers have had this season (I believe the count was 288 for the Pens, 280 for us). I'm not here to debate the cleanliness of Matt Cooke's hit on Ryan McDonagh, which can be seen in all its glory here. Thankfully, few are defending this hit. But imagine me sitting in that arena, watching Cooke go off to the locker room, hearing an arena of Pens fans boo.
Maybe you were booing Matt Cooke for doing something stupid that could end a guy's career. Or at least something stupid that puts his team in a really bad position to win a hockey game. Maybe you were booing your coach for putting the 'A' on Cooke's sweater, thus lifting him up as an exemplar on the Pens. Or your hypocritical management, for using its creepily close relationship with Gary Bettman to whine about this kind of behavior while continuing to employ it. 'Cause there is no way you were booing Cooke's penalties, right?
Anyway, a few minutes later when Matt Niskanen irresponsibly got his stick up in Ryan Callahan's face, cutting open his nose (again, Penguin fans, I assume you were booing due to your disappointment in Niskanen?), the Rangers finally decided to start shooting the puck (the 5-on-3, which started 7:54 into the period, gave us our first shot of that period), and the whole game turned around. Once again, Penguin fans leave the building in shock, and I leave happy.
The question, of course, now becomes how long Cooke gets suspended for. No one is even debating how dirty that hit was, but no one knows what the NHL would do. If we are to listen to the Penguins, through either the owner's complaints that are so well-known by now, or the fans who complained that Trevor Gillies's recent 10-game suspension was too short because he's an obvious repeat offender, Cooke deserves at least the rest of the regular season, and probably however far the Pens go into the playoffs, as well. However, McD skated away fine, and this is a league that historically suspends to the injury, not the action. So, we'll see.
And stop calling them the "'Guins." It sounds stupid.
One more thing: 20-goal scorer watch! I off-handedly said to my girlfriend during some game in December or January, "you know what I would love? If this season, the Rangers had no 30-goal scorers and like 6 20-goal scorers. That would just be awesome."
Well, here we are, with nine games to go in the regular season. Our leading scorer, Ryan Callahan, has 23 goals. Behind him are Gaborik with 22 and Dubinsky and Boyle with 21 each. Stepan's at 19 and Anisimov's at 18. So, a new thing I'm gonna root for is at least one more for Step and at least two more for Arty. I'd love to be rooting for a team with six 20-goal scorers and no 30-goal scorers, wouldn't you?
Anyway, the point is: we come away from Pittsburgh with another two points, and we breathe that much easier coming into the stretch. Nine games to go.
I love going to Consol Energy Center.
Man, I used to hate going to the Igloo, but I fucking love going to the Consol Energy Center.
Game started out with a few "huh?" calls: a missed goalie interference here, a trip-that-wasn't-a-trip-at-all there, Dustin Jeffrey sent to the box for something Matt Cooke did, and so on. Nothing remarkable, but a pretty good hockey game. By the second period, which Torts rightly called "brutal," the action was all Pens, all the time. There was no way we were winning this game on our own.
So the Penguins did us a favor and once again became the Flyers, despite Coach Dan Bylsma's continued, appropriate scratching of Arron Asham in the face of slightly more man-games lost to injury than even the Rangers have had this season (I believe the count was 288 for the Pens, 280 for us). I'm not here to debate the cleanliness of Matt Cooke's hit on Ryan McDonagh, which can be seen in all its glory here. Thankfully, few are defending this hit. But imagine me sitting in that arena, watching Cooke go off to the locker room, hearing an arena of Pens fans boo.
Maybe you were booing Matt Cooke for doing something stupid that could end a guy's career. Or at least something stupid that puts his team in a really bad position to win a hockey game. Maybe you were booing your coach for putting the 'A' on Cooke's sweater, thus lifting him up as an exemplar on the Pens. Or your hypocritical management, for using its creepily close relationship with Gary Bettman to whine about this kind of behavior while continuing to employ it. 'Cause there is no way you were booing Cooke's penalties, right?
Anyway, a few minutes later when Matt Niskanen irresponsibly got his stick up in Ryan Callahan's face, cutting open his nose (again, Penguin fans, I assume you were booing due to your disappointment in Niskanen?), the Rangers finally decided to start shooting the puck (the 5-on-3, which started 7:54 into the period, gave us our first shot of that period), and the whole game turned around. Once again, Penguin fans leave the building in shock, and I leave happy.
The question, of course, now becomes how long Cooke gets suspended for. No one is even debating how dirty that hit was, but no one knows what the NHL would do. If we are to listen to the Penguins, through either the owner's complaints that are so well-known by now, or the fans who complained that Trevor Gillies's recent 10-game suspension was too short because he's an obvious repeat offender, Cooke deserves at least the rest of the regular season, and probably however far the Pens go into the playoffs, as well. However, McD skated away fine, and this is a league that historically suspends to the injury, not the action. So, we'll see.
And stop calling them the "'Guins." It sounds stupid.
One more thing: 20-goal scorer watch! I off-handedly said to my girlfriend during some game in December or January, "you know what I would love? If this season, the Rangers had no 30-goal scorers and like 6 20-goal scorers. That would just be awesome."
Well, here we are, with nine games to go in the regular season. Our leading scorer, Ryan Callahan, has 23 goals. Behind him are Gaborik with 22 and Dubinsky and Boyle with 21 each. Stepan's at 19 and Anisimov's at 18. So, a new thing I'm gonna root for is at least one more for Step and at least two more for Arty. I'd love to be rooting for a team with six 20-goal scorers and no 30-goal scorers, wouldn't you?
Anyway, the point is: we come away from Pittsburgh with another two points, and we breathe that much easier coming into the stretch. Nine games to go.
I love going to Consol Energy Center.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Gifts
The right teams keep winning, and they keep doing it in regulation time. With the more-likely-out-of-the-picture Leafs beating the closest-to-breaking-in Hurricanes in regulation last night, here's what our little corner of the standings looks like right now:
7. NEW YORK RANGERS - 78 pts, 11 GR
8. Buffalo - 76 pts, 12 GR
--------------------
9. Carolina - 74 pts, 11 GR
10. Toronto - 72 pts, 11 GR
11. New Jersey - 70 pts, 13 GR
12. Atlanta - 70 pts, 12 GR
(Atlanta is included mostly because I have a soft spot for them: they've got a hell of a hill to climb.) This is a 4-point cushion over 9th place right now, which is a more comfortable place to be than the one we've been in the last couple of weeks. We're back to well in command of our own destiny, and if we can get another few gifts and win another few games, we might even earn ourselves "breathing room," which is a thing I've read about: apparently some teams don't spend the last week of the season scrambling to make it into 8th. Sounds cool, right?
Anyway, here's a thing I might continue doing: looking at what this same set of standings would be if we used a sane point system. I think it might be fun to watch the ending scramble to get into the playoffs as it should be, while comparing it to what actually happens in the crazy land of bad math that is Bettman's NHL. Comment if you have an opinion one way or another about whether or not this remains interesting.
7. NEW YORK RANGERS - 68 pts, 11 GR
8. Carolina - 65 pts, 11 GR
--------------------
9. New Jersey - 64 pts, 13 GR
10. Buffalo - 64 pts, 12 GR
11. Toronto - 63 pts, 11 GR
12. Atlanta - 62 pts, 12 GR
No commentary on that from me for now. Draw your own conclusions. I'll probably keep showing this.
Oh, right! Tonight's games! Flyers at Atlanta, Devils at Ottawa, Leafs at Florida, and if you're still crazy enough to think we can catch the Habs (who have 5 points and a game-in-hand on us), the Lightning are in Montréal. Also some other hockey: there are 11 NHL games tonight. If you've got nothing to do, sit at home and watch hockey!
7. NEW YORK RANGERS - 78 pts, 11 GR
8. Buffalo - 76 pts, 12 GR
--------------------
9. Carolina - 74 pts, 11 GR
10. Toronto - 72 pts, 11 GR
11. New Jersey - 70 pts, 13 GR
12. Atlanta - 70 pts, 12 GR
(Atlanta is included mostly because I have a soft spot for them: they've got a hell of a hill to climb.) This is a 4-point cushion over 9th place right now, which is a more comfortable place to be than the one we've been in the last couple of weeks. We're back to well in command of our own destiny, and if we can get another few gifts and win another few games, we might even earn ourselves "breathing room," which is a thing I've read about: apparently some teams don't spend the last week of the season scrambling to make it into 8th. Sounds cool, right?
Anyway, here's a thing I might continue doing: looking at what this same set of standings would be if we used a sane point system. I think it might be fun to watch the ending scramble to get into the playoffs as it should be, while comparing it to what actually happens in the crazy land of bad math that is Bettman's NHL. Comment if you have an opinion one way or another about whether or not this remains interesting.
7. NEW YORK RANGERS - 68 pts, 11 GR
8. Carolina - 65 pts, 11 GR
--------------------
9. New Jersey - 64 pts, 13 GR
10. Buffalo - 64 pts, 12 GR
11. Toronto - 63 pts, 11 GR
12. Atlanta - 62 pts, 12 GR
No commentary on that from me for now. Draw your own conclusions. I'll probably keep showing this.
Oh, right! Tonight's games! Flyers at Atlanta, Devils at Ottawa, Leafs at Florida, and if you're still crazy enough to think we can catch the Habs (who have 5 points and a game-in-hand on us), the Lightning are in Montréal. Also some other hockey: there are 11 NHL games tonight. If you've got nothing to do, sit at home and watch hockey!
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Interesting
Lineup for tonight appears to leave Christensen centering Prospal and Gaborik, but Avery is making the lineup after all. The healthy scratch? Wojtek Wolski, and we should expect a line of Avery-Stepan-Zuccarello. Okay, weird choice, but I'll have fun watching them. Also, looks like Eminger in for Gilroy.
Monday, March 14, 2011
I don't know why I did this
Let's imagine a restoration of sanity: if regulation time ends and the game is tied, the teams play an overtime. At the end of that overtime, the game is over. If either team has won, that team gets two points, and the other team gets zero. If neither team has won, they tie, and each team gets one point. Therefore, overtime games are not worth more than regulation games, which is silly. Also, no shootout.
So, we can actually calculate what this would look like, right now. Today, if a team wins within an overtime period, it gets two points, as it should. No change there. If a team loses in an overtime period today, it gets one point, whereas in the sane system, it should get zero. If a game goes to a shootout, we should pretend it ended there, in a tie. Therefore, each team should get one point. Today, the loser does get a point, but the winner gets two, and would only get one in the sane system.
So, for each team, if we take their total points, subtract one point per loss within an overtime period, and subtract one point per shootout win, we will get the number of points that team would have in a sane point system. Let's take a look!
These are the Eastern Conference standings, right now (listed with goal differential, also ignoring the division-winning thing):
1. Philadelphia (+37) - 91 pts, 14 GR
2. Washington (+18) - 90 pts, 12 GR
3. Pittsburgh (+30) - 88 pts, 12 GR
4. Boston (+41) - 85 pts, 14 GR
5. Tampa Bay (-5) - 85 pts, 13 GR
6. Montréal (+12) - 83 pts, 13 GR
7. Buffalo (+2) - 76 pts, 13 GR
8. New York Rangers (+27) - 76 pts, 12 GR
--------------------
9. Carolina (-13) - 72 pts, 13 GR
10. Atlanta (-29) - 70 pts, 13 GR
11. Toronto (-30) - 70 pts, 13 GR
12. New Jersey (-28) - 68 pts, 14 GR
13. Florida (-18) - 65 pts, 13 GR
14. New York Islanders (-27) - 65 pts, 12 GR
15. Ottawa (-58) - 59 pts, 13 GR
Here's what they would look like using my sane point system:
1. Philadelphia (+37) - 85 pts, 14 GR
2. Washington (+18) - 82 pts, 12 GR
3. Boston (+41) - 80 pts, 14 GR
4. Pittsburgh (+30) - 78 pts, 12 GR
5. Montréal (+12) - 77 pts, 13 GR
6. Tampa Bay (-5) - 75 pts, 13 GR
7. New York Rangers (+27) - 66 pts, 12 GR
8. Buffalo (+2) - 64 pts, 13 GR
--------------------
9. Carolina (-13) - 63 pts, 13 GR
10. New Jersey (-28) - 62 pts, 14 GR
11. Atlanta (-29) - 62 pts, 13 GR
12. Toronto (-30) - 61 pts, 13 GR
13. Florida (-18) - 56 pts, 13 GR
14. New York Islanders (-27) - 56 pts, 12 GR
15. Ottawa (-58) - 53 pts, 13 GR
What does this show us? Not much, I guess. The same eight teams would be in the playoff picture, but we and the Sabres would be switched. It also puts the ranking much closer to goal differential order. My initial inclination is that this would be a much better way to express how good a team is at hockey, but at the end of the day it gives a team somewhere between 4-5 points (Minnesota, New Jersey) and 11-12 points (Nashville, Buffalo), so it's only responsible for up to an 8-point swing, which is big for teams on the bubble, but statistically unlikely to make a big change in which teams make the playoffs.
Specifically, it shows us that Boston, as their goal differential shows as well, should be higher in the standings than they are, and that we belong a bit ahead of Buffalo. It also shows us that the Devils should be way closer to the playoffs than they are. Fuck the Devils and all, but it's shit like this that makes the NHL kinda bullshit. If overtime games weren't worth more points than regulation games, the Devils' basement-to-the-playoffs run would be realistic, which is shitty 'cause they're the Devils (and fuck them), but it's kinda cool for hockey.
Anyway, I'm not sure why I did this, or what it proves, if anything. But there it is. If I have time, I may go back and analyze the five completed seasons since the lockout to see what ought to be different, if anything.
So, we can actually calculate what this would look like, right now. Today, if a team wins within an overtime period, it gets two points, as it should. No change there. If a team loses in an overtime period today, it gets one point, whereas in the sane system, it should get zero. If a game goes to a shootout, we should pretend it ended there, in a tie. Therefore, each team should get one point. Today, the loser does get a point, but the winner gets two, and would only get one in the sane system.
So, for each team, if we take their total points, subtract one point per loss within an overtime period, and subtract one point per shootout win, we will get the number of points that team would have in a sane point system. Let's take a look!
These are the Eastern Conference standings, right now (listed with goal differential, also ignoring the division-winning thing):
1. Philadelphia (+37) - 91 pts, 14 GR
2. Washington (+18) - 90 pts, 12 GR
3. Pittsburgh (+30) - 88 pts, 12 GR
4. Boston (+41) - 85 pts, 14 GR
5. Tampa Bay (-5) - 85 pts, 13 GR
6. Montréal (+12) - 83 pts, 13 GR
7. Buffalo (+2) - 76 pts, 13 GR
8. New York Rangers (+27) - 76 pts, 12 GR
--------------------
9. Carolina (-13) - 72 pts, 13 GR
10. Atlanta (-29) - 70 pts, 13 GR
11. Toronto (-30) - 70 pts, 13 GR
12. New Jersey (-28) - 68 pts, 14 GR
13. Florida (-18) - 65 pts, 13 GR
14. New York Islanders (-27) - 65 pts, 12 GR
15. Ottawa (-58) - 59 pts, 13 GR
Here's what they would look like using my sane point system:
1. Philadelphia (+37) - 85 pts, 14 GR
2. Washington (+18) - 82 pts, 12 GR
3. Boston (+41) - 80 pts, 14 GR
4. Pittsburgh (+30) - 78 pts, 12 GR
5. Montréal (+12) - 77 pts, 13 GR
6. Tampa Bay (-5) - 75 pts, 13 GR
7. New York Rangers (+27) - 66 pts, 12 GR
8. Buffalo (+2) - 64 pts, 13 GR
--------------------
9. Carolina (-13) - 63 pts, 13 GR
10. New Jersey (-28) - 62 pts, 14 GR
11. Atlanta (-29) - 62 pts, 13 GR
12. Toronto (-30) - 61 pts, 13 GR
13. Florida (-18) - 56 pts, 13 GR
14. New York Islanders (-27) - 56 pts, 12 GR
15. Ottawa (-58) - 53 pts, 13 GR
What does this show us? Not much, I guess. The same eight teams would be in the playoff picture, but we and the Sabres would be switched. It also puts the ranking much closer to goal differential order. My initial inclination is that this would be a much better way to express how good a team is at hockey, but at the end of the day it gives a team somewhere between 4-5 points (Minnesota, New Jersey) and 11-12 points (Nashville, Buffalo), so it's only responsible for up to an 8-point swing, which is big for teams on the bubble, but statistically unlikely to make a big change in which teams make the playoffs.
Specifically, it shows us that Boston, as their goal differential shows as well, should be higher in the standings than they are, and that we belong a bit ahead of Buffalo. It also shows us that the Devils should be way closer to the playoffs than they are. Fuck the Devils and all, but it's shit like this that makes the NHL kinda bullshit. If overtime games weren't worth more points than regulation games, the Devils' basement-to-the-playoffs run would be realistic, which is shitty 'cause they're the Devils (and fuck them), but it's kinda cool for hockey.
Anyway, I'm not sure why I did this, or what it proves, if anything. But there it is. If I have time, I may go back and analyze the five completed seasons since the lockout to see what ought to be different, if anything.
Felix??
OK, my apologies for this being exactly what Kevin DeLury posted a few hours ago, but I couldn't not repost this.
Apparently Andrew Gross was interviewing various Rangers today about the Rangers-Islanders rivalry, in anticipation of tomorrow night's game. Of the rivalry, Ryan McDonagh said "It's easy to see it's New York teams, but I don't know the history." So Gross pressed on and asked about the "Potvin Sucks!" chant (one of my favorite Ranger traditions). McD said that he heard it every night, but didn't know what it meant. He said he "figured it had something to do with the goaltender."
So Gross went on to set McDonagh straight on which Potvin sucks and why, going back to Potvin's big hit on Ulf Nilsson on February 25, 1979, which many credit with commencing the chant for the first time. In his piece, Gross goes on to point out that this hit occurred almost ten and a half years before Ryan McDonagh was born.
Apparently Andrew Gross was interviewing various Rangers today about the Rangers-Islanders rivalry, in anticipation of tomorrow night's game. Of the rivalry, Ryan McDonagh said "It's easy to see it's New York teams, but I don't know the history." So Gross pressed on and asked about the "Potvin Sucks!" chant (one of my favorite Ranger traditions). McD said that he heard it every night, but didn't know what it meant. He said he "figured it had something to do with the goaltender."
So Gross went on to set McDonagh straight on which Potvin sucks and why, going back to Potvin's big hit on Ulf Nilsson on February 25, 1979, which many credit with commencing the chant for the first time. In his piece, Gross goes on to point out that this hit occurred almost ten and a half years before Ryan McDonagh was born.
Not the worst weekend
So, this will mostly serve as a standings update, and the news is pretty good. As you recall, last week, teams had enough games-in-hand over us that, if they won them all, we'd have been out of the playoff picture. However, as they say, you have to win your games-in-hand for them to count, and this was a pretty decent week for them not doing that. The Hurricanes have earned one point of a possible eight in their last four games. The Leafs have earned three of eight in the same stretch. Even the Sabres and Devils lost games in regulation.
Meanwhile, we escaped California with two of a possible four points, in playing zero of a possible two good games. Yes, we battled for a while in San Jose, and yes, the Sharks are very good at hockey. But I can't help feeling like the third and overtime periods were just past our bedtime. Still, we played physical hockey and got enough lucky and enough Lundqvist to earn our way into the silly post-game fun-time that earned us a second point and time to exhale on the plane back to Eastern Standard Time. All things considered, I'll take it.
The bad news is, of course, Erik Christensen scored. He actually looked decent in his return in San Jose: the fact that he's soft was made up for by the rest of our forwards playing physical hockey, and he was able to do some good things with his stick on more plays than just the goal he scored. That would be good news even though I don't like him, except it makes it that much less likely that Sean Avery will be in the lineup as we need him to be down this stretch. Blah blah blah, the usual rant. I'm right, the end.
So, we stole a couple in Cali, the right teams lost now and again, and here's where we stand:
7. Buffalo - 76 pts, 13 GR
8. NEW YORK RANGERS - 76 pts, 12 GR
--------------------
9. Carolina - 72 pts, 13 GR
10. Toronto - 70 pts, 13 GR
11. Atlanta - 70 pts, 13 GR
12. New Jersey - 68 pts, 14 GR
The Devils still get included, as if they win their game-in-hand, they pull exactly even with Toronto and Atlanta with 70 points and 13 games remaining. So, yes, everyone still has a game-in-hand over us, but it's only the one. And if they all win them, we still end up in 8th, 2 points ahead of the 9th-place 'Canes, and 2 points behind the 7th-place Sabres. Things are tight, but we're definitely in a better place than we were a week ago, despite playing less-than-stellar hockey on the West Coast. So far, so good.
Not much on the docket for tonight: just the Bolts in Toronto. Not the biggest deal, but Tampa could use a big win over a lesser team, and if Toronto could lose a couple more, it would be one fewer team we'd have to seriously worry about. Tomorrow night, on the other hand, lots of shit goes down. We host the Islanders back at the Garden, which is going to be lots of fun. They've been playing good hockey lately (4-0-2 in their last 6), and they always play up for us. We need to come back home and put points on the board - if we try to rely on the Islanders being an inferior team, we will be surprised when we are down by a couple of goals.
At the same time, the Thrashers will be at the Devils, and the 'Canes will be at the Sabres. For those of you paying attention, we want all four of those teams to lose as much as possible. What's most important, of course, is that neither game goes into overtime and therefore gets rewarded with extra points in the standings. Outside of that, clearly, let's go Thrashers, because fuck the Devils. Then, there's Carolina-Buffalo. Thoughts? If Buffalo wins, it gets that much harder to climb into 7th. If Carolina wins, though, we're back to one game from out of the playoffs entirely. Let's go regulation-time endings!
One more thing of note: our goal differential is +27 on the season. That's good for 4th in the conference and 7th in the league, one behind the goddamn Detroit Red Wings' +28. However, like the Chicago Blackhawks (+33 and in 7th), that isn't exactly turning into the wins you'd expect it to: ahead of us in the standings are Washington (+18), Montréal (+12), Buffalo (+2), and Tampa (-5). I'd like to take a look at goal differential compared to total points this season, and I'd like to see how that comparison would look if we used a rational standings system (replace the current point totals with 2 for an OT win, 0 for an OT loss, 1 each for getting to the shootout regardless of victor).
A statistical master named Nilesh's findings here lead me to believe that, in general, goal differential tends to still be a pretty good indicator of total points in the NHL, even with the shootout nonsense (in fact, he found that the Pythagorean Expectation model actually works better than it does in baseball). So are we and the 'Hawks just outliers? More on this, if I find the time to do math this week.
Meanwhile, we escaped California with two of a possible four points, in playing zero of a possible two good games. Yes, we battled for a while in San Jose, and yes, the Sharks are very good at hockey. But I can't help feeling like the third and overtime periods were just past our bedtime. Still, we played physical hockey and got enough lucky and enough Lundqvist to earn our way into the silly post-game fun-time that earned us a second point and time to exhale on the plane back to Eastern Standard Time. All things considered, I'll take it.
The bad news is, of course, Erik Christensen scored. He actually looked decent in his return in San Jose: the fact that he's soft was made up for by the rest of our forwards playing physical hockey, and he was able to do some good things with his stick on more plays than just the goal he scored. That would be good news even though I don't like him, except it makes it that much less likely that Sean Avery will be in the lineup as we need him to be down this stretch. Blah blah blah, the usual rant. I'm right, the end.
So, we stole a couple in Cali, the right teams lost now and again, and here's where we stand:
7. Buffalo - 76 pts, 13 GR
8. NEW YORK RANGERS - 76 pts, 12 GR
--------------------
9. Carolina - 72 pts, 13 GR
10. Toronto - 70 pts, 13 GR
11. Atlanta - 70 pts, 13 GR
12. New Jersey - 68 pts, 14 GR
The Devils still get included, as if they win their game-in-hand, they pull exactly even with Toronto and Atlanta with 70 points and 13 games remaining. So, yes, everyone still has a game-in-hand over us, but it's only the one. And if they all win them, we still end up in 8th, 2 points ahead of the 9th-place 'Canes, and 2 points behind the 7th-place Sabres. Things are tight, but we're definitely in a better place than we were a week ago, despite playing less-than-stellar hockey on the West Coast. So far, so good.
Not much on the docket for tonight: just the Bolts in Toronto. Not the biggest deal, but Tampa could use a big win over a lesser team, and if Toronto could lose a couple more, it would be one fewer team we'd have to seriously worry about. Tomorrow night, on the other hand, lots of shit goes down. We host the Islanders back at the Garden, which is going to be lots of fun. They've been playing good hockey lately (4-0-2 in their last 6), and they always play up for us. We need to come back home and put points on the board - if we try to rely on the Islanders being an inferior team, we will be surprised when we are down by a couple of goals.
At the same time, the Thrashers will be at the Devils, and the 'Canes will be at the Sabres. For those of you paying attention, we want all four of those teams to lose as much as possible. What's most important, of course, is that neither game goes into overtime and therefore gets rewarded with extra points in the standings. Outside of that, clearly, let's go Thrashers, because fuck the Devils. Then, there's Carolina-Buffalo. Thoughts? If Buffalo wins, it gets that much harder to climb into 7th. If Carolina wins, though, we're back to one game from out of the playoffs entirely. Let's go regulation-time endings!
One more thing of note: our goal differential is +27 on the season. That's good for 4th in the conference and 7th in the league, one behind the goddamn Detroit Red Wings' +28. However, like the Chicago Blackhawks (+33 and in 7th), that isn't exactly turning into the wins you'd expect it to: ahead of us in the standings are Washington (+18), Montréal (+12), Buffalo (+2), and Tampa (-5). I'd like to take a look at goal differential compared to total points this season, and I'd like to see how that comparison would look if we used a rational standings system (replace the current point totals with 2 for an OT win, 0 for an OT loss, 1 each for getting to the shootout regardless of victor).
A statistical master named Nilesh's findings here lead me to believe that, in general, goal differential tends to still be a pretty good indicator of total points in the NHL, even with the shootout nonsense (in fact, he found that the Pythagorean Expectation model actually works better than it does in baseball). So are we and the 'Hawks just outliers? More on this, if I find the time to do math this week.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Torts Good and Bad (and whom to root for tonight)
I really don't wanna dive too deeply into this Zdeno Chara/Max Pacioretty stuff. My take is this: it is super-unfortunate. I've seen the hit, which I won't link to here, and it looked totally clean to me. I think labeling it with intent to injure is silly, and I think this news about Montréal police starting an investigation is kinda nonsense. That said, the injury that transpired was horrific, and could easily have been even worse. Everyone's outrage is understandable.
I'm not going to make a statement like "this is the NHL's fault." That's too black-and-white. And I support their decision to not suspend Chara further. However, in general, the focus on supplementary discipline is exactly the problem here. The "New NHL" has made a slight grab around the shoulder or stick tap anywhere on the body an automatic two minutes. In the ideal world of the New NHL, how was Chara supposed to take Pacioretty down? He had the jump on him, and surely, as a defenseman, Chara's job is not to watch Pacioretty skate on by. So, what: hit him softly and see what happens? In 1990, I think Chara sticks an arm out to slow him down a little. But no: the New NHL says that's illegal. So Chara has no choice but to throw his whole (gigantic) body at the guy. And it happens to be in an unfortunate location on the ice (where the New NHL's new boards have a lot less give than they did in the 90s, by the way).
Anyway, I started by saying I didn't really want to get into that. It sickens me, and I think it's another example of how the NHL actively makes decisions that end up making the sport more dangerous. I only bring it up because Torts made some comments on the subject that it's worth reading. He talks about the players "not [being] allowed to police themselves," and I think that's exactly the right way to put it. How many times in the last few seasons have you seen officials break up a fight before it happens? What about assigning an instigator penalty (which is now an automatic 17 minutes, by the way) to the guy who cleanly challenges an opponent who did something nasty to a teammate, while letting "choreographed, pre-arranged" fights (there's a stoppage of play, the coaches line up their "fighters" next to each other, the announcers say "oh boy, I think I know what's coming," and they're off) get off with 5 minutes each? Like that's the good kind of fight?
Now, think hard. When you see officials break up a fight before it happens, or when you see one of these nonsense instigator penalties, do they tend to clean up the game? Does it inspire players to cool down? Or does it make them more agitated, because they didn't have the opportunity to settle things like real men, like hockey players do? Does it maybe cause the game to get more out of hand? (YES, IT DOES.)
The point is: cheers to John Tortorella for calling that out to the media. May more coaches and GMs start to say shit like this, and may the Bettman/Campbell bonehead bifecta ever start to listen to the people who actually know hockey (or, like, retire?).
And, as the post title implies, jeers to Tortorella as well, for the usual: shafting Sean Avery. On a night when absolutely no Ranger forward was good, and when the Wolski-Stepan-Zuccarello line was particularly atrocious, Torts defaulted to his old standby and responded by benching Sean Avery. Avery, who looked no worse than anyone else (Dubinsky and Callahan notwithstanding), and who looked better than many, got a team-low (what else is new?) 8:28, including only 2:01 in the third. This 8:28 was a full 1:50 behind the next-lowest, perennial non-factor Ruslan Fedotenko. For comparison, Wolski, Stepan, and Zuccarello got 12:32, 14:34, and 15:05, respectively, while Avery's "linemates" got 14:36 (Prospal) and 14:48 (Gaborik, who scored despite being unimpressive).
Worse, all signs point to Avery being scratched Saturday night in San Jose, in favor of Erik Christensen. I won't go on another rant here about Avery and Christensen, because it will look like a dozen other posts this season. In short: fuck Erik Christensen, and fuck that move.
Anyway, standings. The Flyers did us a favor and beat the Leafs in regulation last night, but the Bruins gave up a 3-2 lead in the third (with some help from the officials) and lost to Buffalo in overtime. Which puts Buffalo at 74 points, tied with us, with two games-in-hand. Someone needs to start beating these guys, please. As for tonight, we've got the 'Canes in Washington, where Alex Ovechkin really needs to stay hot and win a game in regulation for us. If Carolina wins, the standings become a little more honest, and we officially drop to 9th. We've also got Atlanta at New Jersey. Go Thrash, because if the Devils can lose another game or two, this goddamn "miracle run" talk will end, and we can all go back to laughing at Ilya Kovalchuk a little bit.
I never know how to end blog posts.
I'm not going to make a statement like "this is the NHL's fault." That's too black-and-white. And I support their decision to not suspend Chara further. However, in general, the focus on supplementary discipline is exactly the problem here. The "New NHL" has made a slight grab around the shoulder or stick tap anywhere on the body an automatic two minutes. In the ideal world of the New NHL, how was Chara supposed to take Pacioretty down? He had the jump on him, and surely, as a defenseman, Chara's job is not to watch Pacioretty skate on by. So, what: hit him softly and see what happens? In 1990, I think Chara sticks an arm out to slow him down a little. But no: the New NHL says that's illegal. So Chara has no choice but to throw his whole (gigantic) body at the guy. And it happens to be in an unfortunate location on the ice (where the New NHL's new boards have a lot less give than they did in the 90s, by the way).
Anyway, I started by saying I didn't really want to get into that. It sickens me, and I think it's another example of how the NHL actively makes decisions that end up making the sport more dangerous. I only bring it up because Torts made some comments on the subject that it's worth reading. He talks about the players "not [being] allowed to police themselves," and I think that's exactly the right way to put it. How many times in the last few seasons have you seen officials break up a fight before it happens? What about assigning an instigator penalty (which is now an automatic 17 minutes, by the way) to the guy who cleanly challenges an opponent who did something nasty to a teammate, while letting "choreographed, pre-arranged" fights (there's a stoppage of play, the coaches line up their "fighters" next to each other, the announcers say "oh boy, I think I know what's coming," and they're off) get off with 5 minutes each? Like that's the good kind of fight?
Now, think hard. When you see officials break up a fight before it happens, or when you see one of these nonsense instigator penalties, do they tend to clean up the game? Does it inspire players to cool down? Or does it make them more agitated, because they didn't have the opportunity to settle things like real men, like hockey players do? Does it maybe cause the game to get more out of hand? (YES, IT DOES.)
The point is: cheers to John Tortorella for calling that out to the media. May more coaches and GMs start to say shit like this, and may the Bettman/Campbell bonehead bifecta ever start to listen to the people who actually know hockey (or, like, retire?).
And, as the post title implies, jeers to Tortorella as well, for the usual: shafting Sean Avery. On a night when absolutely no Ranger forward was good, and when the Wolski-Stepan-Zuccarello line was particularly atrocious, Torts defaulted to his old standby and responded by benching Sean Avery. Avery, who looked no worse than anyone else (Dubinsky and Callahan notwithstanding), and who looked better than many, got a team-low (what else is new?) 8:28, including only 2:01 in the third. This 8:28 was a full 1:50 behind the next-lowest, perennial non-factor Ruslan Fedotenko. For comparison, Wolski, Stepan, and Zuccarello got 12:32, 14:34, and 15:05, respectively, while Avery's "linemates" got 14:36 (Prospal) and 14:48 (Gaborik, who scored despite being unimpressive).
Worse, all signs point to Avery being scratched Saturday night in San Jose, in favor of Erik Christensen. I won't go on another rant here about Avery and Christensen, because it will look like a dozen other posts this season. In short: fuck Erik Christensen, and fuck that move.
Anyway, standings. The Flyers did us a favor and beat the Leafs in regulation last night, but the Bruins gave up a 3-2 lead in the third (with some help from the officials) and lost to Buffalo in overtime. Which puts Buffalo at 74 points, tied with us, with two games-in-hand. Someone needs to start beating these guys, please. As for tonight, we've got the 'Canes in Washington, where Alex Ovechkin really needs to stay hot and win a game in regulation for us. If Carolina wins, the standings become a little more honest, and we officially drop to 9th. We've also got Atlanta at New Jersey. Go Thrash, because if the Devils can lose another game or two, this goddamn "miracle run" talk will end, and we can all go back to laughing at Ilya Kovalchuk a little bit.
I never know how to end blog posts.
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