My band had a gig last night, so I didn't even get home and start watching the game until like 12:30. What a waste of staying up until 3 in the morning! Man, that was depressing.
First of all, what are the chances you give up three goals in the first period off of deflections off of your own men in front of the net? 'Cause that was one off of Girardi's skate, one off of Staal's shoulder, and one off of Anisimov's stick. On the first one, I thought, "you know, at least Girardi is making sure there aren't any Ducks in front of the net to deflect pucks in." In general, I guess that's a good sign? The Staal one was weird, but by the Anismov deflection, it was pretty clear that the Ducks were also doing something right. Say, that Bobby Ryan feller is pretty good at the hockey.
You know what the worst part is? Well, no, the worst part is obviously the standings. Of course, the Thrashers-'Canes game went to OT last night. And, as you know, that means Gary Bettman rewards both teams for "keeping the game exciting" by making their game worth more points than a normal, regulation game. So, that sucks. But you know what the second-worst part is? Giving a win to Dan "Mo' Money, Mo' Problems" Ellis! Fuck Dan Ellis! In our long-standing tradition of making goalies look better than they are, we let Dan Ellis make the most saves he's made so far in a game with Anaheim! And he's a jerk-butt!
Anyway, no real constructive comments here. We're a young team, we gotta learn to win games like these, and we will with time, if we stick to the plan. Meanwhile, as far as this season is concerned, things are looking grim. Here are the standings as of this morning:
7. NEW YORK RANGERS - 74 pts, 13 GR
8. Buffalo - 72 pts, 16 GR
--------------------
9. Carolina - 72 pts, 15 GR
10. Toronto - 68 pts, 15 GR
11. Atlanta - 67 pts, 15 GR
12. New Jersey - 64 pts, 16 GR
It's that "GR" thing you should be looking at. We've played 3 more games than Buffalo and the Devils, and 2 more games than everyone else behind us. So, theoretically, if we were to sit still and let everyone play their games-in-hand, and they all won those games-in-hand, the standings would look a little bit more like this:
7. Buffalo - 78 pts
8. Carolina - 76 pts
--------------------
9. NEW YORK RANGERS - 74 pts
10. Toronto - 72 pts
11. Atlanta - 71 pts
12. New Jersey - 70 pts
That's us, on the outside, looking in. Not too far behind, but outside the playoff picture nonetheless. At that point, we'd all be looking at 13 games to go. Time to catch Carolina and possibly also Buffalo, but we're really going to have to start to get hot down the stretch here. Buffalo, Carolina, Toronto, and New Jersey all have, and if we keep playing this way-under-.500 hockey, we could find ourselves in, like, 11th by the end of the season. Just sayin', that 7th-place thing is kind of a lie.
Anyway, we're off again until Saturday night at the Shark Tank. Meanwhile, tonight, the Sabres are in Boston and the Flyers are in Toronto. If Philly and the Bruins can do us some (regulation-time) favors, the pressure lessens a little. Late season playoff push: here we go again!
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Monday, March 7, 2011
Monday Funday
It's amazing how beating the first-place Flyers 7-0, Lundqvist's league-leading 9th shutout (he was already league-leading at 8, actually), Callahan's first career hat trick (and it was of the Texas variety), Ryan McDonagh's best game yet, Richards challenging and subsequently getting his ass kicked by Dubinsky, calls so bad even the NBC guys got them right, and on top of it all using exactly the lines I wanted to use and scratching exactly the forward I wanted to scratch can all serve to turn a Ranger fan from nervous and depressed to elated in the course of a few hours, isn't it?
Nothing bad to say. Every hockey game should be this much fun. I'll just mention the one thing that everyone will quickly forget after such an exciting day: Stephen Walkom was responsible for all those awful calls, and should be fired.
Now, after beating the Senators and Flyers by an aggregate 11-1 for the weekend, we have a couple of days off before playing in Anaheim Wednesday night, then a couple more before playing San Jose Saturday night. By the next day, the Sabres will have played four games and the 'Canes will have played three, giving them each only one game-in-hand over us. So, it's a good time for those teams to lose some games. Meanwhile, all we can do is chill out and prepare for Wednesday. So, time to let loose with some fun things!
Fun Thing One, by way of Puck Daddy today, an educational film I call "Donald Brashear Shakes His Ass but Does Not Put His Beer Down until He Has Finished It":
Fun Thing Two, by way of this thing that appears to be a Thrashers-ish blog, a long time ago. You may have seen it back when it first made the Internet Rounds? I didn't. It's a music video starring a cute nerd and a ukelele. It's called "Puck the Bunnies," and it's written for those girls you see at every goddamn game - you know the ones. I'm reposting and dedicating it to sometime reader Melanie, non-reader Ruth, the ladies of Some Like It Blue, the ladies of Hab It Her Way, and any other actual female hockey fans who are given a bad name by Puck Bunnies everywhere.
Fun Thing Three, by way of that same Thrashers-ish blog, but recently: a flowchart that will help you decide which hockey team to root for. It's kinda hard to follow, because the creator didn't include, like, arrows on the lines or anything, but if you can follow it, it's worth it, because it's very funny. Way too big to consider embedding here, just follow the linky: This is the linky.
That's all! Go have a good day!
Nothing bad to say. Every hockey game should be this much fun. I'll just mention the one thing that everyone will quickly forget after such an exciting day: Stephen Walkom was responsible for all those awful calls, and should be fired.
Now, after beating the Senators and Flyers by an aggregate 11-1 for the weekend, we have a couple of days off before playing in Anaheim Wednesday night, then a couple more before playing San Jose Saturday night. By the next day, the Sabres will have played four games and the 'Canes will have played three, giving them each only one game-in-hand over us. So, it's a good time for those teams to lose some games. Meanwhile, all we can do is chill out and prepare for Wednesday. So, time to let loose with some fun things!
Fun Thing One, by way of Puck Daddy today, an educational film I call "Donald Brashear Shakes His Ass but Does Not Put His Beer Down until He Has Finished It":
Fun Thing Two, by way of this thing that appears to be a Thrashers-ish blog, a long time ago. You may have seen it back when it first made the Internet Rounds? I didn't. It's a music video starring a cute nerd and a ukelele. It's called "Puck the Bunnies," and it's written for those girls you see at every goddamn game - you know the ones. I'm reposting and dedicating it to sometime reader Melanie, non-reader Ruth, the ladies of Some Like It Blue, the ladies of Hab It Her Way, and any other actual female hockey fans who are given a bad name by Puck Bunnies everywhere.
Fun Thing Three, by way of that same Thrashers-ish blog, but recently: a flowchart that will help you decide which hockey team to root for. It's kinda hard to follow, because the creator didn't include, like, arrows on the lines or anything, but if you can follow it, it's worth it, because it's very funny. Way too big to consider embedding here, just follow the linky: This is the linky.
That's all! Go have a good day!
Saturday, March 5, 2011
ToIpP follow-up; oh and we won a game
So, yes, we beat the second-worst team in the league (and the one with the worst goal differential, by the way), by a pretty-resounding-if-you-ignore-the-total-breakdown-we-survived-for-about-ten-minutes-bridging-the-second-and-third-periods score of 4-1. That's certainly better than not beating them. Forgive me if I don't get all excited about it yet. Carolina lost in regulation, which was nice (and yes, the Devils won again). But let's remember the overall standings and games-in-hand situation. We have three games in the next week: Flyers, Ducks, and Sharks. We're gonna need to come away from those games with points. Let's see that happen, then I'll get excited.
Of note: Avery was still given the least ice time of any Ranger forward, but it was much more balanced. He got 11:32 while Christensen got 12:35, Prospal got 12:47, Zuccarello got 13:06, etc. Dubinksy was the only forward with over 20 minutes. Does more balanced ice time for our four lines lead directly to more winning? One game is hardly proof, but there are some numbers for you to think about.
Anyway, I wanted to follow up on yesterday's Time on Ice per Point post, as reader Chris left an interesting analysis in the comments (hooray for comments) and I wanted to make sure everyone saw it. Chris did similar math, calculating how much time on ice a given forward requires to score a point, but factored out all special teams. He used only even strength time on ice and counted only even strength points. The numbers, as he pointed out, look even better for Avery this way.
With stats now adjusted to include last night's game as well, Avery is good for a point every 32:52 of even strength time. This puts him behind Wolski, Gaborik, Stepan, Dubinsky, and Callahan - and ahead of every other Ranger forward. It puts him only 1:46 behind Cally and 2:22 behind Dubi, while he's 3:04 ahead of Anisimov, 4:02 ahead of Christensen, and so on. At even strength, he's one of the top six most valuable Ranger forwards, in terms of raw point production.
So what's the disparity? The difference is that he is never damn used on the power play. The other forwards' numbers are inflated by getting more time on the power play, when it is more likely that you will get points in less time. Avery averages only 25 seconds of PP time per game (ahead of only Brandon "all PK, all the time" Prust), so his Even Strength ToIpP (32:52) is almost exactly his total ToIpP (32:41). Meanwhile, you take someone like Mats Zuccarello, who averages 2:46 on the PP per game. His total ToIpP sits well above Avery's, at 28:49. However, that includes a bunch of power play points, and his actual Even Strength ToIpP is down at 40:07, significantly worse than Avery's.
Big hat tip to reader Chris here, as I think this is a much more relevant way of looking at these numbers. Again, there are a lot of things a hockey player contributes to a team that aren't raw point production, but this is a good way to analyze point production itself.
So this got me thinking: Avery's point production is better than a lot of other Ranger forwards, but his numbers are skewed by: a) low ice time, and b) virtually no PP time. Are those the same thing? Is Avery's shortened ice time simply a lack of use on the PP, or is he shafted on even strength time as well? Turns out: Avery's average even strength TOI per game is 11:17. Near the bottom of the heap (ahead of only Christensen and Prospal), but not by a ton: Dubinsky's is only 14:45, while most Ranger forwards fall between Zuccarello (12:32) and Callahan (13:53). At even strength, it looks like Avery is averaging only a shift or two fewer than he should be: weird, to be sure, but not really ground-breaking.
On the PP, as we saw earlier, Avery is given almost nothing: about 25 seconds a game (compare to Callahan's 3:21, Zuccarello's 2:46, Christensen's 2:10, etc.). This is where the real disparity in ice time comes from: special teams (needless to say Avery has seen a total of 8 shorthanded seconds all season long). So maybe that's the real story here.
Here's what we've definitely learned: those who say Avery doesn't deserve as much ice time as others because, despite his good play, he never finds the back of the net are full of shit. Avery is more productive at even strength, in terms of just raw point production, than the average Ranger forward, and if you want to use raw point production alone, he should be a top-six forward.
Here's what we've probably learned: given his solid production and play, it is still clear that Avery is getting a couple fewer shifts than he should be in each game. This is where the real question for Torts lies: why? What is it that he doesn't like that he's seeing from Avery? Or is it all pre-conceived, having nothing to do with what he actually sees?
Here's what we may or may not have learned: it's time to start trying Avery on the PP? He's proven to be very good in terms of production at even strength, where his ice time is a little lower than it should be, but he's been largely untested on the PP all season long. Meanwhile, our PP is shitty. Maybe it's time to give the Grate One a go.
Of note: Avery was still given the least ice time of any Ranger forward, but it was much more balanced. He got 11:32 while Christensen got 12:35, Prospal got 12:47, Zuccarello got 13:06, etc. Dubinksy was the only forward with over 20 minutes. Does more balanced ice time for our four lines lead directly to more winning? One game is hardly proof, but there are some numbers for you to think about.
Anyway, I wanted to follow up on yesterday's Time on Ice per Point post, as reader Chris left an interesting analysis in the comments (hooray for comments) and I wanted to make sure everyone saw it. Chris did similar math, calculating how much time on ice a given forward requires to score a point, but factored out all special teams. He used only even strength time on ice and counted only even strength points. The numbers, as he pointed out, look even better for Avery this way.
With stats now adjusted to include last night's game as well, Avery is good for a point every 32:52 of even strength time. This puts him behind Wolski, Gaborik, Stepan, Dubinsky, and Callahan - and ahead of every other Ranger forward. It puts him only 1:46 behind Cally and 2:22 behind Dubi, while he's 3:04 ahead of Anisimov, 4:02 ahead of Christensen, and so on. At even strength, he's one of the top six most valuable Ranger forwards, in terms of raw point production.
So what's the disparity? The difference is that he is never damn used on the power play. The other forwards' numbers are inflated by getting more time on the power play, when it is more likely that you will get points in less time. Avery averages only 25 seconds of PP time per game (ahead of only Brandon "all PK, all the time" Prust), so his Even Strength ToIpP (32:52) is almost exactly his total ToIpP (32:41). Meanwhile, you take someone like Mats Zuccarello, who averages 2:46 on the PP per game. His total ToIpP sits well above Avery's, at 28:49. However, that includes a bunch of power play points, and his actual Even Strength ToIpP is down at 40:07, significantly worse than Avery's.
Big hat tip to reader Chris here, as I think this is a much more relevant way of looking at these numbers. Again, there are a lot of things a hockey player contributes to a team that aren't raw point production, but this is a good way to analyze point production itself.
So this got me thinking: Avery's point production is better than a lot of other Ranger forwards, but his numbers are skewed by: a) low ice time, and b) virtually no PP time. Are those the same thing? Is Avery's shortened ice time simply a lack of use on the PP, or is he shafted on even strength time as well? Turns out: Avery's average even strength TOI per game is 11:17. Near the bottom of the heap (ahead of only Christensen and Prospal), but not by a ton: Dubinsky's is only 14:45, while most Ranger forwards fall between Zuccarello (12:32) and Callahan (13:53). At even strength, it looks like Avery is averaging only a shift or two fewer than he should be: weird, to be sure, but not really ground-breaking.
On the PP, as we saw earlier, Avery is given almost nothing: about 25 seconds a game (compare to Callahan's 3:21, Zuccarello's 2:46, Christensen's 2:10, etc.). This is where the real disparity in ice time comes from: special teams (needless to say Avery has seen a total of 8 shorthanded seconds all season long). So maybe that's the real story here.
Here's what we've definitely learned: those who say Avery doesn't deserve as much ice time as others because, despite his good play, he never finds the back of the net are full of shit. Avery is more productive at even strength, in terms of just raw point production, than the average Ranger forward, and if you want to use raw point production alone, he should be a top-six forward.
Here's what we've probably learned: given his solid production and play, it is still clear that Avery is getting a couple fewer shifts than he should be in each game. This is where the real question for Torts lies: why? What is it that he doesn't like that he's seeing from Avery? Or is it all pre-conceived, having nothing to do with what he actually sees?
Here's what we may or may not have learned: it's time to start trying Avery on the PP? He's proven to be very good in terms of production at even strength, where his ice time is a little lower than it should be, but he's been largely untested on the PP all season long. Meanwhile, our PP is shitty. Maybe it's time to give the Grate One a go.
Friday, March 4, 2011
Time on Ice per Point
So, the one argument that rational people against playing Sean Avery make is that despite all of his good play, he doesn't produce enough. It's a tale that summarizes the whole team's woes of late, but they say Avery gets lots of chances but can't find the back of the net. With only three goals on the season, it's a compelling one (of forwards that have played at least 10 games, only White, Boogaard, Drury, and Newbury have fewer). So, I decided to call on our old friend math, to see if he (or she, ladies!) couldn't help me sort this one out.
Math says that Avery has tallied 3 goals and 20 assists this season, for a total of 23 points. Math (by which, in this case, I mean nhl.com) also says that Avery has clocked 772:43 of ice time this season. This means that he has been good for 1 point every 33:36 that he is on the ice. How does that add up against other Rangers? Math and I had a party, to find out, for you.
Turns out: it adds up to comparable to everyone else. Avery's "Time on Ice per Point" (a statistic I just made up, that everyone everywhere should be using) is third worst among Ranger forwards, but it's actually right in the main mix. Let me explain.
On the "unreasonably good" side, we have Marian "yes, Ranger fans, he actually is still that good" Gaborik, good for a point every 22:57 of ice time. Second, boosted by what those in the statistics business call a small sample size, is Vinny Prospal with a point every 23:39. That will go down over time, it represents only 8 points in just under 190 minutes of play, and it will become a more reasonable number as the season goes by. He's good, but he's not that good.
On the "unreasonably bad" side, we have Brandon Prust, whose "ToIpP" is 39:52. This is largely to be expected: let's remember that this only measures numeric productivity and total ice time, which does not account for things like defensive play. For example, if a dude is a great penalty killer, and finds himself on the ice for every goddamn PK (and is still somehow pulling an even +/- for the season), that's gonna count against him, because it's a lot of minutes that he's on the ice doing a very good job, but not scoring goals. Just under him is the worst forward of the lot, Ruslan Fedotenko, with a 40:31. I don't really have a great excuse for this one, maybe he justs sucks a lot more than some people think he does.
Other than those four outliers, we have a pack of Rangers forwards all huddled together - all 9 remaining forwards (I did not include Alex Frolov, Chris Drury, Derek Boogaard, Todd White, or anyone with fewer games than Prospal) range between Callahan's 27:31 and Avery's 33:36 (Artem Anisimov, for example, edges Avery out by only 7 seconds per point).
So what have we learned? Well, obviously, ToIpP is not a tell-all statistic. It's good to show us how much offense a player tangibly puts on the board, but it doesn't account for a lot of play setup that he might do, or for a lot of defense that he might play. But it does tell us something if a player is grossly outside of where everyone else is (like Prust, who has a good reason for it, or Fedotenko, who maybe doesn't). And it does give us a solid argument against anyone who says a particular player doesn't put enough tangible points on the board, if we can see that his numbers are actually comparable to everyone else's.
OK, so in the name of offering some sort of hope using numbers, there is one statistic that is still good news for us: goal differential. Yes, teams below us, the Devils especially, are winning lots of games, and we're not. Yes, if teams below us won their games-in-hand over us, we'd be outside the playoff picture right now. But our +19 goal differential remains good for fourth in the East (by a comfortable margin of 10 goals) and tied for eighth in the league. Bill "Pythagoras" James tells us that we should be winning some more games here pretty soon.
Without getting into the boring details, the Pythagorean expectation formula tells us we're about 3 points in the standings behind where we should be, based on goal differential. Meanwhile, the 'Canes are about 8 points ahead of where they should be, by the same logic. So, there's some hope in that. It's all meaningless in terms of who makes the playoffs, of course; and in the New NHL, where the majority of teams have winning records, teams are constantly outperforming their Pythagorean expectations. But still, it's something. Maybe better things are to come?
Math says that Avery has tallied 3 goals and 20 assists this season, for a total of 23 points. Math (by which, in this case, I mean nhl.com) also says that Avery has clocked 772:43 of ice time this season. This means that he has been good for 1 point every 33:36 that he is on the ice. How does that add up against other Rangers? Math and I had a party, to find out, for you.
Turns out: it adds up to comparable to everyone else. Avery's "Time on Ice per Point" (a statistic I just made up, that everyone everywhere should be using) is third worst among Ranger forwards, but it's actually right in the main mix. Let me explain.
On the "unreasonably good" side, we have Marian "yes, Ranger fans, he actually is still that good" Gaborik, good for a point every 22:57 of ice time. Second, boosted by what those in the statistics business call a small sample size, is Vinny Prospal with a point every 23:39. That will go down over time, it represents only 8 points in just under 190 minutes of play, and it will become a more reasonable number as the season goes by. He's good, but he's not that good.
On the "unreasonably bad" side, we have Brandon Prust, whose "ToIpP" is 39:52. This is largely to be expected: let's remember that this only measures numeric productivity and total ice time, which does not account for things like defensive play. For example, if a dude is a great penalty killer, and finds himself on the ice for every goddamn PK (and is still somehow pulling an even +/- for the season), that's gonna count against him, because it's a lot of minutes that he's on the ice doing a very good job, but not scoring goals. Just under him is the worst forward of the lot, Ruslan Fedotenko, with a 40:31. I don't really have a great excuse for this one, maybe he justs sucks a lot more than some people think he does.
Other than those four outliers, we have a pack of Rangers forwards all huddled together - all 9 remaining forwards (I did not include Alex Frolov, Chris Drury, Derek Boogaard, Todd White, or anyone with fewer games than Prospal) range between Callahan's 27:31 and Avery's 33:36 (Artem Anisimov, for example, edges Avery out by only 7 seconds per point).
So what have we learned? Well, obviously, ToIpP is not a tell-all statistic. It's good to show us how much offense a player tangibly puts on the board, but it doesn't account for a lot of play setup that he might do, or for a lot of defense that he might play. But it does tell us something if a player is grossly outside of where everyone else is (like Prust, who has a good reason for it, or Fedotenko, who maybe doesn't). And it does give us a solid argument against anyone who says a particular player doesn't put enough tangible points on the board, if we can see that his numbers are actually comparable to everyone else's.
OK, so in the name of offering some sort of hope using numbers, there is one statistic that is still good news for us: goal differential. Yes, teams below us, the Devils especially, are winning lots of games, and we're not. Yes, if teams below us won their games-in-hand over us, we'd be outside the playoff picture right now. But our +19 goal differential remains good for fourth in the East (by a comfortable margin of 10 goals) and tied for eighth in the league. Bill "Pythagoras" James tells us that we should be winning some more games here pretty soon.
Without getting into the boring details, the Pythagorean expectation formula tells us we're about 3 points in the standings behind where we should be, based on goal differential. Meanwhile, the 'Canes are about 8 points ahead of where they should be, by the same logic. So, there's some hope in that. It's all meaningless in terms of who makes the playoffs, of course; and in the New NHL, where the majority of teams have winning records, teams are constantly outperforming their Pythagorean expectations. But still, it's something. Maybe better things are to come?
Fffffffuuuuuuuuuuuu
It's getting ridiculous. Once again, we manage to play an entire game from behind, even when we score first. This time, we outshot the Wild fucking 41-19 (they didn't get a shot at all in the first 17:17) but still lost 3-1 (no, I'm not ready to throw Hank under a bus just yet, but the numbers do say that that's a save percentage of .842, to Jose "yes, he's still around" Theodore's .976). This was yet another incredibly frustrating loss.
At the risk of petitions (you know, from my countless readership) to rename this little Slice of Internet "Play Sean Avery," we really need to talk. Our only goal of the game went to The Artist Formerly Known As The Grate One, 3:13 into the first. He was rewarded for this effort with 7:07 of ice time throughout the remainder of the game, almost 3 and a half minutes less than any other Ranger. A whole 1:37 of this came in the third - in fact, Avery was given a total of only 3:49 once we were trailing - and none whatsoever came on the power play (if it can be called that), which went an unsurprising 0-for-4 in 8 full, uninterrupted minutes of shitty.
WHY? Seriously, a cookie to anyone who can give me a theoretically reasonable explanation for Avery's astoundingly limited ice time. For real, I will mail you a goddamn cookie if you can explain this to me rationally.
To clarify: playing Sean Avery is not the answer to all of our problems, which are many and mounting. All I'm saying is that it would fucking help. Those problems, by the way, are finally taking shape in the standings, for those of you who haven't been paying attention. With Carolina's win over Buffalo last night (yes, of course it went to overtime, so it was a 3-point game), we've officially slipped into 8th. Meanwhile, Montréal (whom it's becoming a joke to keep in the conversation about our standings) and Toronto both won as well. And they all still have games-in-hand over us. Let me spell this out for you:
6. Montréal, 77 pts, 17 GR
7. Carolina, 71 pts, 17 GR
8. NEW YORK RANGERS, 70 pts, 16 GR
---------------
9. Buffalo, 68 pts, 19 GR
10. Toronto, 67 pts, 17 GR
11. Atlanta, 63 pts, 17 GR
12. New Jersey, 60 pts, 19 GR
Yes, I'm including the Devils on this list. Guess what. If they win their 3 games in hand on us, they will be 4 points behind us. Two games. You don't think they can win two more games than we do down the stretch? Wake up call time.
So there's the reality of the situation. The playoffs, still considered a pretty sure thing as recently as a couple of weeks ago, are more and more in doubt every day. We've still only won two non-shootout games since January 19 (we've played 18 since then). Two points up-for-grabs last night: we got none. Four points up-for-grabs this weekend: two from Ottawa tonight, two from the Flyers on Sunday afternoon. Could we please start winning some goddamn games?
At the risk of petitions (you know, from my countless readership) to rename this little Slice of Internet "Play Sean Avery," we really need to talk. Our only goal of the game went to The Artist Formerly Known As The Grate One, 3:13 into the first. He was rewarded for this effort with 7:07 of ice time throughout the remainder of the game, almost 3 and a half minutes less than any other Ranger. A whole 1:37 of this came in the third - in fact, Avery was given a total of only 3:49 once we were trailing - and none whatsoever came on the power play (if it can be called that), which went an unsurprising 0-for-4 in 8 full, uninterrupted minutes of shitty.
WHY? Seriously, a cookie to anyone who can give me a theoretically reasonable explanation for Avery's astoundingly limited ice time. For real, I will mail you a goddamn cookie if you can explain this to me rationally.
To clarify: playing Sean Avery is not the answer to all of our problems, which are many and mounting. All I'm saying is that it would fucking help. Those problems, by the way, are finally taking shape in the standings, for those of you who haven't been paying attention. With Carolina's win over Buffalo last night (yes, of course it went to overtime, so it was a 3-point game), we've officially slipped into 8th. Meanwhile, Montréal (whom it's becoming a joke to keep in the conversation about our standings) and Toronto both won as well. And they all still have games-in-hand over us. Let me spell this out for you:
6. Montréal, 77 pts, 17 GR
7. Carolina, 71 pts, 17 GR
8. NEW YORK RANGERS, 70 pts, 16 GR
---------------
9. Buffalo, 68 pts, 19 GR
10. Toronto, 67 pts, 17 GR
11. Atlanta, 63 pts, 17 GR
12. New Jersey, 60 pts, 19 GR
Yes, I'm including the Devils on this list. Guess what. If they win their 3 games in hand on us, they will be 4 points behind us. Two games. You don't think they can win two more games than we do down the stretch? Wake up call time.
So there's the reality of the situation. The playoffs, still considered a pretty sure thing as recently as a couple of weeks ago, are more and more in doubt every day. We've still only won two non-shootout games since January 19 (we've played 18 since then). Two points up-for-grabs last night: we got none. Four points up-for-grabs this weekend: two from Ottawa tonight, two from the Flyers on Sunday afternoon. Could we please start winning some goddamn games?
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Staal and Fedotenko
Looks like we get both Staal and Fedotenko back tonight. Awesome. Newbury was sent to the Whale already, so that replacement is obvious. On D? I'm thinking Eminger, who got less than 9 minutes in the last game and less than 11 in the previous one, sits out. That's the right move, especially given how Gilroy's been playing lately. Top 6 D-men are Staal, Girardi, Sauer, McDonagh, McCabe, and Gilroy - I like this a lot.
As for the lines? Well, here's what Torts should do:
Dubinsky - Anisimov - Callahan
Wolski - Stepan - Zuccarello
Fedotenko - Christensen - Prospal
Avery - Boyle - Prust
And then he should leave those lines together all game long, and he should given them all good ice time. Here's what he's going to do, I'm betting:
Dubinsky - Anisimov - Callahan
Wolski - Stepan - Zuccarello
Prospal - Christensen - Boyle (three centers)
Fedotenko - Avery - Prust (zero centers)
With those third and fourth lines getting mixed and matched throughout the first period, decreasing ice time dramatically in the second, and ending up mixing everything up and rotating only two lines throughout the third, looking something like:
Dubinsky - Stepan - Callahan
Wolski - Christensen - Prospal
(Everyone else is on the bench)
I guess only time will tell. Better with Staal and Fedotenko than without them, certainly. Let's go Rangers!
As for the lines? Well, here's what Torts should do:
Dubinsky - Anisimov - Callahan
Wolski - Stepan - Zuccarello
Fedotenko - Christensen - Prospal
Avery - Boyle - Prust
And then he should leave those lines together all game long, and he should given them all good ice time. Here's what he's going to do, I'm betting:
Dubinsky - Anisimov - Callahan
Wolski - Stepan - Zuccarello
Prospal - Christensen - Boyle (three centers)
Fedotenko - Avery - Prust (zero centers)
With those third and fourth lines getting mixed and matched throughout the first period, decreasing ice time dramatically in the second, and ending up mixing everything up and rotating only two lines throughout the third, looking something like:
Dubinsky - Stepan - Callahan
Wolski - Christensen - Prospal
(Everyone else is on the bench)
I guess only time will tell. Better with Staal and Fedotenko than without them, certainly. Let's go Rangers!
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Assorted Thoughts on Last Night's Loss
Thought number one: bleugh! So, we lost 3-2 to the team closest to a playoff berth's doorstep. A bad night for us in the standings all around, as we sat in 7th place and gained 0 points, while the teams in 5th, 6th, 8th, and 9th (each of which has at least one game-in-hand over us) each gained 2. Boo, additionally hiss.
Let's see. The game was at home, we lost in regulation by one goal, and we played almost the entire third period in the opponent's zone, getting chance after chance and not finding the back of the net. Sound familiar? Sounds a lot like the game we lost Sunday afternoon in Tampa, huh?
A quick word on the officials. I think maybe Torts was out of line in blaming the officials for deciding the Tampa game, if only because I thought their incompetence also led to Prust's goal counting when it shouldn't have. But that doesn't mean the officiating wasn't awful, and last night's was even worse. From completely unjustifiable calls against the Rangers in the first two periods to blatant ignorance of no-brainer calls missed in the third, I'm not going to say that referees Brad Meier and Dean Morton did intentionally screw over the Rangers because of Torts's comments on Sunday...but there's certainly enough evidence there to corroborate anyone who would make such an implication.
Anyway.
The two forwards I've been complaining about recently are Artem Anisimov and Erik Christensen. Let's talk about it. For a while, I've been on this kick that all Anisimov is good for is a spinorama now and again. I'm disappointed in the way he fails to actually play physically, and I'm fairly convinced that much of his success this season is due to centering Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan. I'd probably rack up a handful of assists and have a badly below-average faceoff percentage pivoting those two also. I mean, for the three shifts I got in before my heart gave out. But, I honestly thought he looked pretty good last night. Better than usual, anyway. If the rest of the guys can teach him to hit people, and he can spend the summer bulking up, I'm willing to keep giving him a chance. Good show.
Christensen, on the other hand, really pisses me off. Whenever I finally start complaining about him out loud to other fans, he turns around and produces a bunch of points. He never actually improves his play, though, is the thing! He gets more ice time because he gets more points, and that's fine I guess? Maybe I just don't understand hockey, but I feel like Christensen just keeps being in the right place at the right time and sometimes not doing the incredibly stupid thing. I guess there's value in that, but it pisses me off that he keeps getting points, while other forwards put forth a much more solid effort and don't get rewards.
To name names, here are a couple: Vinny Prospal and Sean Avery. First of all, I need to come to Prospal's defense here. Yes, he made a dumb play that led directly to the Jochen Hecht's ultimately game-winning goal. But it was exactly the kind of dumb play I like! The puck is out at the point, on a Sabre's stick, and Vinny dives to make the steal. It's an error of a couple of inches, but if he grabs the puck, he's got a hundred-foot breakaway in front of him. He misses, and takes a second to get back, and by then it's too late, but I'm really not convinced I hate that. I sure don't know that I bench him for it, and I certainly don't use "but you're down 2-1 in the third" as an excuse to play differently. I like to see risks like that, and Prospal being 36 instead of 24 don't change that none.
And now it is time for my regular rant on Sean Avery's inexplicably depleted ice time. Sunday afternoon, in a game in which we were just that one elusive spark away from tying it, Avery was given a whopping 4:14 of ice time, including 36 seconds in the 2nd and 18 seconds in the 3rd. Last night, in a game in which we were just that one elusive spark away from tying it, Avery was given a much improved 9:10, all even strength, admittedly better distributed. More than Prust and Newbury, less than any other forward.
I know he's not putting up numbers these days, even when he is getting ice time. But I look at the way he protects the puck with 3 guys on him and the way he eventually gets it out to some Ranger's stick every time, and I'm inclined to not care that his shot is awful; I'd rather have him out there in a pinch than a lot of the other guys that Torts seems to go to first, and I just can't wrap my head around why. It doesn't seem like Torts actively dislikes Avery, more like he default "I don't know what to do now" answer is "stick Avery on the 4th line for a while," and Sean has done nothing to deserve that but play good hockey. I just wonder if a couple of these one-goal losses might not have gone differently if Avery had been given a real chance to be a difference-maker? It's meaningless postulating, I know, but what else are blogs for?
Defense! First of all, small sample sizes notwithstanding (we're 0-2-0 with him in the lineup), I like Bryan McCabe so far. He hasn't yet done anything worthy of scorn as a defenseman, and he's been a presence on the power play so far. Cautious approval. The down side, as Scotty Hockey points out (that's more or less what he does), is that the Rangers already seem to be trying to make McCabe the guy that does the shooting, the trap we sometimes fall into with Gabby. A couple of times last night, Zuccarello should have taken a shot and instead passed it to McCabe for a much worse chance, because McCabe is the guy that does the shooting. Anyway, that's not his fault. Maybe it'll wear off. And he does have a pretty good, quick shot from the point, something we could use.
Meanwhile, I'm going to do the unthinkable here: I'm going to criticize Michael Sauer a little. Not just for being out of position twice in a row to lead to the Sabres' second goal, but I think he's been looking a step behind for a little while now. I'm not saying we cut the kid, I'm not even really saying we should do anything different with his ice time. All I'm saying is he hasn't been the surprisingly solid player over the last few games that he was a couple of months ago. That's okay. Do with it what you will.
Finally, a quick round of applause to Ryan Miller. Not that we couldn't have maybe won the game on our own anyway, but damn if that guy doesn't make it hard to come back from behind. He is good at hockey, from a goaltending perspective.
Onwards and ideally upwards, I guess? It's getting awful hard to look at all these one-goal losses where we worked really hard at the end as one-offs, as the bigger picture tells us we're 2-4-0 in our last 6, 4-8-0 in our last 12, and 7-12-1 dating back to January 13, when we played our most solid 2-way home game of the season and beat the Canucks 1-0. Since then, we have won only three games without the aid of the much-maligned shootout, though we have played 20.
You heard me: four shootout victories notwithstanding, we have won three hockey games decided by actual hockey out of our last 20. Gone are the very brief days when we were referred to as a "possible Eastern Conference contender." We've got the Wild Thursday night, the Senators the following night, and the Flyers again on Sunday afternoon. If we don't start consistently coming away from these games with 2 points, we're gonna find ourselves trying to scrape our way into eighth again come April. Anyone else feel like it's time to stop playing every game from behind?
Let's see. The game was at home, we lost in regulation by one goal, and we played almost the entire third period in the opponent's zone, getting chance after chance and not finding the back of the net. Sound familiar? Sounds a lot like the game we lost Sunday afternoon in Tampa, huh?
A quick word on the officials. I think maybe Torts was out of line in blaming the officials for deciding the Tampa game, if only because I thought their incompetence also led to Prust's goal counting when it shouldn't have. But that doesn't mean the officiating wasn't awful, and last night's was even worse. From completely unjustifiable calls against the Rangers in the first two periods to blatant ignorance of no-brainer calls missed in the third, I'm not going to say that referees Brad Meier and Dean Morton did intentionally screw over the Rangers because of Torts's comments on Sunday...but there's certainly enough evidence there to corroborate anyone who would make such an implication.
Anyway.
The two forwards I've been complaining about recently are Artem Anisimov and Erik Christensen. Let's talk about it. For a while, I've been on this kick that all Anisimov is good for is a spinorama now and again. I'm disappointed in the way he fails to actually play physically, and I'm fairly convinced that much of his success this season is due to centering Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan. I'd probably rack up a handful of assists and have a badly below-average faceoff percentage pivoting those two also. I mean, for the three shifts I got in before my heart gave out. But, I honestly thought he looked pretty good last night. Better than usual, anyway. If the rest of the guys can teach him to hit people, and he can spend the summer bulking up, I'm willing to keep giving him a chance. Good show.
Christensen, on the other hand, really pisses me off. Whenever I finally start complaining about him out loud to other fans, he turns around and produces a bunch of points. He never actually improves his play, though, is the thing! He gets more ice time because he gets more points, and that's fine I guess? Maybe I just don't understand hockey, but I feel like Christensen just keeps being in the right place at the right time and sometimes not doing the incredibly stupid thing. I guess there's value in that, but it pisses me off that he keeps getting points, while other forwards put forth a much more solid effort and don't get rewards.
To name names, here are a couple: Vinny Prospal and Sean Avery. First of all, I need to come to Prospal's defense here. Yes, he made a dumb play that led directly to the Jochen Hecht's ultimately game-winning goal. But it was exactly the kind of dumb play I like! The puck is out at the point, on a Sabre's stick, and Vinny dives to make the steal. It's an error of a couple of inches, but if he grabs the puck, he's got a hundred-foot breakaway in front of him. He misses, and takes a second to get back, and by then it's too late, but I'm really not convinced I hate that. I sure don't know that I bench him for it, and I certainly don't use "but you're down 2-1 in the third" as an excuse to play differently. I like to see risks like that, and Prospal being 36 instead of 24 don't change that none.
And now it is time for my regular rant on Sean Avery's inexplicably depleted ice time. Sunday afternoon, in a game in which we were just that one elusive spark away from tying it, Avery was given a whopping 4:14 of ice time, including 36 seconds in the 2nd and 18 seconds in the 3rd. Last night, in a game in which we were just that one elusive spark away from tying it, Avery was given a much improved 9:10, all even strength, admittedly better distributed. More than Prust and Newbury, less than any other forward.
I know he's not putting up numbers these days, even when he is getting ice time. But I look at the way he protects the puck with 3 guys on him and the way he eventually gets it out to some Ranger's stick every time, and I'm inclined to not care that his shot is awful; I'd rather have him out there in a pinch than a lot of the other guys that Torts seems to go to first, and I just can't wrap my head around why. It doesn't seem like Torts actively dislikes Avery, more like he default "I don't know what to do now" answer is "stick Avery on the 4th line for a while," and Sean has done nothing to deserve that but play good hockey. I just wonder if a couple of these one-goal losses might not have gone differently if Avery had been given a real chance to be a difference-maker? It's meaningless postulating, I know, but what else are blogs for?
Defense! First of all, small sample sizes notwithstanding (we're 0-2-0 with him in the lineup), I like Bryan McCabe so far. He hasn't yet done anything worthy of scorn as a defenseman, and he's been a presence on the power play so far. Cautious approval. The down side, as Scotty Hockey points out (that's more or less what he does), is that the Rangers already seem to be trying to make McCabe the guy that does the shooting, the trap we sometimes fall into with Gabby. A couple of times last night, Zuccarello should have taken a shot and instead passed it to McCabe for a much worse chance, because McCabe is the guy that does the shooting. Anyway, that's not his fault. Maybe it'll wear off. And he does have a pretty good, quick shot from the point, something we could use.
Meanwhile, I'm going to do the unthinkable here: I'm going to criticize Michael Sauer a little. Not just for being out of position twice in a row to lead to the Sabres' second goal, but I think he's been looking a step behind for a little while now. I'm not saying we cut the kid, I'm not even really saying we should do anything different with his ice time. All I'm saying is he hasn't been the surprisingly solid player over the last few games that he was a couple of months ago. That's okay. Do with it what you will.
Finally, a quick round of applause to Ryan Miller. Not that we couldn't have maybe won the game on our own anyway, but damn if that guy doesn't make it hard to come back from behind. He is good at hockey, from a goaltending perspective.
Onwards and ideally upwards, I guess? It's getting awful hard to look at all these one-goal losses where we worked really hard at the end as one-offs, as the bigger picture tells us we're 2-4-0 in our last 6, 4-8-0 in our last 12, and 7-12-1 dating back to January 13, when we played our most solid 2-way home game of the season and beat the Canucks 1-0. Since then, we have won only three games without the aid of the much-maligned shootout, though we have played 20.
You heard me: four shootout victories notwithstanding, we have won three hockey games decided by actual hockey out of our last 20. Gone are the very brief days when we were referred to as a "possible Eastern Conference contender." We've got the Wild Thursday night, the Senators the following night, and the Flyers again on Sunday afternoon. If we don't start consistently coming away from these games with 2 points, we're gonna find ourselves trying to scrape our way into eighth again come April. Anyone else feel like it's time to stop playing every game from behind?
Monday, February 28, 2011
Everyone shut up
Joe Nieuwendyk: "I got a kick out of everyone in the media saying, 'who could use Brad Richards?' Well, our team."
Who cares
John Mitchell was a minor league deal, expect to see his name again when training camp starts in the fall, at the soonest. We gave up a 7th-round pick in 2012 for him. Meanwhile, in deals involving anyone you've heard of, the Devils traded Arnott to the Caps for Steckel. That's an interesting deal. Oh, and Christopher Higgins got moved. Again. Now he's a Canuck. Really, Mike Gillis? That's who you go for to make a run to the Cup?
Who?
Hey, we just traded for a guy! John Mitchell? I guess he's a center for the Leafs. 6'1", 205 lbs. 83/149 (55.7%) on faceoffs in 23 games played this season. OK? Dunno what we gave up for him, either. Sure.
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